At this moment, the Trump trade war is making a comeback, with no warning. Several whales have been blown up, triggering a chain collapse, and a bear market may start earlier. Shuqin's two losses this year were both due to Trump's nonsensical shouting, but in the end, I made it back. Now let's talk about the operating strategy.
Previously, the time we set to escape the bull market was in mid to late October, running before the interest rate cut. However, the trade war may have brought the bear market earlier, and the technical pattern has deteriorated. Each rebound from now on will be an opportunity to sell the spot, and cutting losses is no problem because ultimately, going short will earn back. Only Sol, I will finally keep 20% of the spot ETF until it is approved before selling.
Now I plan to layout long-term short positions at high prices and can also hedge the spot. I choose to layout 1x short positions on BTC and ETH at high prices. For BTC, I short 20% of my position every 5,000 points. I have entered a bit of a bottom position, and I have also set orders at 118,000 and 123,000; I will enter as many layers as I can without pursuing the ultimate point.
Because looking at the long term, shorting at 114,000 and 119,000 isn't much different. Next year, during the bear market, Bitcoin will drop to 50,000 or 60,000, which will all be profitable. In the short term, I hope to see an increase because it will give me entry opportunities for shorting at highs, and when the bear market comes later, I will earn more.
In fact, shorting at high positions during a bull market is just like buying on dips during a bear market; both involve entering with 1x positions in batches. For example, buying BTC at the bottom in 2022, I bought BTC at 20,000 when it dipped. Although it later fell to 16,000, down 20%, looking at the current price of 120,000 for the coin, there isn't much difference between buying at 16,000 and 20,000; both are huge profits.
Personally, I am paying attention to whether there can be a nice rebound in the week before the interest rate cut on October 30, or if Trump suddenly eases tariffs one day, leading to a significant rebound. I think such times present shorting opportunities. If I still have remaining positions, I will layout some more then.
This time, Trump’s unexpected market crash can be considered a black swan. I also have losses, but I am not panicking and am operating rationally, because we will all earn back later, and it will be much more than the current losses.
A good analyst is not one who PUA or shows losses and profits at such times, that is of no use. Providing specific strategies and solutions is key; encountering extreme market conditions is not scary; how to earn back is the key. Shuqin has encountered countless black swans over the past 8 years, ultimately facing them positively and turning losses into profits. Do not fear black swans, because what doesn't kill you will make you stronger!
Lastly, I wonder if anyone has something to say to Trump? I'll go first: Trump, you#$&^（%￥#！*$^+@$-!!!!
