🔥 Event Review: A sudden 'Black Friday'
Last night (October 10th late night), global risk assets collectively faced a 'bloodbath':
· US stocks: Nasdaq plummeted 3.56% (the largest single-day drop since April), Dow fell 1.9%, S&P 500 dropped 2.71%; tech stocks collapsed across the board, Nvidia and Tesla fell over 4%-5%.
· Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin plummeted 13.5% in a day, falling below the $110,000 mark; Ethereum dropped over 17%, with a total liquidation amount reaching $9.578 billion, affecting 1.52 million people.
· A-share outlook: A50 futures fell over 3%, Chinese concept stocks plummeted (Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 6.1%), today's A-shares are clearly under pressure.
💥 Analysis of Core Reasons for the Crash
1. Political 'Black Swan' Attacks:
· Trump published a tough long article on social media, escalating global trade tensions, and the market's expectations for a trade agreement collapsed instantly.
· The U.S. government 'shutdown' has entered its 10th day, with the federal government initiating large-scale permanent layoffs, breaking historical norms and intensifying market panic.
2. High Valuation Sectors Taking Profits:
· U.S. tech stocks, A-share semiconductor/new energy sectors have seen excessive gains previously (the sci-tech 50 P/E ratio exceeds 196 times), with funds concentrated on escaping.
· Bitcoin just hit a historical high at the beginning of this week, and after the accumulation of leverage bubbles, a violent deleveraging occurred.
3. Macroeconomic Data and Deteriorating Sentiment:
· The U.S. Michigan Consumer Confidence Index plummeted to 55 in October (the lowest since May), with rising inflation expectations.
· The VIX panic index surged by 31.65%, with funds flowing into gold and government bonds for safety.
🔮 Future Outlook and Strategy
· Short-term pain is hard to avoid:
· Tech stocks and cryptocurrencies need to be wary of further pullbacks, prioritizing risk reduction for high-leverage positions.
· A-shares focus on verifying third-quarter performance, avoiding high-valuation themes (such as semiconductors, batteries), and shifting towards dividend stocks, brokerages, and other defensive sectors.
· The logic for the medium to long term has not changed:
· The Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle is still on the way, and the support of liquidity easing for risk assets has not disappeared.
· Market style may shift from 'extremely biased towards technology' to balanced, focusing on the '14th Five-Year' policy mainline and performance certainty targets.
👇 Interactive Topic
Did you get 'hurt' in this crash? Is it time to bottom fish or continue to watch?
Share your coping strategies in the comments section, and the one with the most likes will receive (Survival Guide for Crashes)!
