On October 13, another token unlock is about to arrive. 44.71 million BB, worth approximately 8 million dollars at the current price, which accounts for 10.9% of the circulating supply. For any crypto project, an unlock of this scale is a test. For a project like BounceBit, which already has a low circulation, the pressure is magnified.

Let’s first clarify the full picture of the unlock. The total supply of BB tokens is 2.1 billion, but only a small portion is circulating at the TGE (Token Generation Event). The majority is locked in various pools: investors 21% (441 million), team 10% (210 million), advisors 5% (105 million), ecological reserve 14% (294 million), staking rewards 35% (735 million).

The key time point is May 13, 2025—12 months after TGE, when the main lock-up period ends. From then on, investors, team members, and advisors' tokens will start to be released monthly in a linear manner. Specifically, investors will unlock 5% of their allocations each month (about 22.05 million tokens), and the team and advisors will unlock 2.5% each month (525,000 and 262,500 tokens respectively).

The unlocking of ecological reserves is slightly more complex. At TGE, 4.5% is released first, then there is a 12-month silence. Starting in May 2025, for the first six months, 6.5% of the remaining amount (about 12.4 million tokens) is released each month, then it drops to 2.5% per month. Staking rewards are released linearly over 10 years, approximately 612,500 tokens per month, starting from the first day of TGE.

Putting these together, the total unlocking amount in October is approximately: 22.05 million from investors + 5.25 million from the team + 2.625 million from advisors + 12.4 million from ecological reserves + 612.5 thousand from staking rewards = 48.45 million tokens. Worth about $8.72 million (based on $0.18), accounting for 11.8% of the current circulating supply of 409.5 million.

This is just October. If we look at the next year, the numbers are even more astonishing. From October 2025 to September 2026, the cumulative unlocking volume is about 676 million tokens, which is 165% of the current circulating supply. In other words, a year later, the circulating tokens will be 2.65 times what they are now. This dilution pressure is something no investor can ignore.

But things are not as bad as they seem. First, unlocking does not equal selling. Investors and teams may not immediately sell their tokens after receiving them, especially those institutional investors who have a long-term positive outlook on the project. Top VCs like OKX Ventures and Blockchain Capital usually have an investment cycle of 3-5 years and will not rush to cash out due to unlocking.

Secondly, the market already has expectations. Smart traders will factor in the unlocking risks in advance, which is why BB's market cap/TVL ratio is only 0.18, far lower than similar projects. To some extent, the current price already reflects future dilution expectations.

More importantly, BounceBit has countermeasures. The repurchase plan initiated on August 5th is designed to hedge against unlocking pressure. The protocol generates about $16 million in income annually (from Prime management fees and protocol transaction fees), a considerable portion of which is used for market repurchases. Since its launch in August, 8.87 million BB have already been repurchased at a cost of about $1.6 million.

At this rate, about 100 million BB can be repurchased in a year (assuming prices remain unchanged). While it cannot fully offset the 676 million new circulation, it can at least absorb 15% of the selling pressure. Moreover, as TVL grows, protocol income will increase, and the repurchase capacity will also strengthen. If next year TVL doubles to $800 million, income could reach $30 million, and repurchase capacity will correspondingly increase.

From historical data, the actual impact of unlocking is milder than imagined. The unlocking on September 10th (42.89 million tokens, about $6.4 million) indeed triggered short-term fluctuations, with BB's price dropping from $0.193 to $0.183, a decline of about 5.2%. But just a week later, it recovered because the market realized the selling pressure was not as severe as expected.

The logic behind this is simple: not all token holders are speculators. Among investors, many are strategic holders who focus on the long-term value of BounceBit. Not to mention the team and advisors, selling off would be equivalent to undermining their own livelihood. The ecological reserve theoretically should not enter the secondary market, but should be used for development incentives and partner rewards.

The real source of potential selling pressure is the staking rewards. This portion of tokens is directly allocated to stakers, many of whom are retail investors who may choose to cash out upon receiving them. However, even if all are sold, the 612.5 thousand tokens per month would only account for 8% of the current daily trading volume (about $14.8 million), which can be fully absorbed by the market.

Another often overlooked factor is that unlocking can also increase liquidity, which is a good thing for the long-term development of the project. Too low a circulating supply can lead to price manipulation, with large players causing severe fluctuations when entering or exiting. As the circulation ratio gradually increases from 19.5% to 50% or even higher, market depth will improve, and the price discovery mechanism will be more effective.

From an investment strategy perspective, unlocking actually creates buying opportunities. Before each unlocking, market sentiment often leans pessimistic, and prices drop in advance to reflect expectations. After unlocking, if the selling pressure is not heavy, prices will quickly rebound. For investors willing to take a contrarian approach, this is a window for buying low.

The unlocking on September 10th was a perfect example. In the week before the unlocking, BB dropped from $0.195 to $0.183, a decline of 6%. On the day of unlocking, it hit a low of $0.178, but then rebounded strongly, returning to $0.19 within three days. If purchased at the bottom, short-term gains of 6-7% could be achieved.

I anticipate a similar pattern for the unlocking on October 13th. Prices may drop to the $0.17-$0.175 range before unlocking, which would be a very good entry point. Once the market confirms there is no large-scale selling, a rebound to $0.19-$0.20 is entirely possible. For swing traders, this is an opportunity not to be missed.

Of course, if you are a long-term holder, unlocking is even less of an issue. What truly determines BB's price are the fundamentals—TVL growth, protocol income, product innovation. As long as these indicators continue to rise, the short-term unlocking fluctuations are just noise.

From a more macro perspective, token unlocking is an inevitable path for any project. Ethereum also faced similar pressures in its early days, and new public chains like EigenLayer and Celestia are also facing unlocking tests. The key is whether the project can maintain growth momentum during the unlocking period and use fundamental improvements to hedge against dilution effects.

BounceBit has done well in this regard. TVL grew from $300 million in July to $406 million in October, an increase of 35%. Prime products' cumulative trading volume surpassed $1.5 billion. The V3 upgrade brought native perpetual contract DEX. All these developments tell the market: unlocking is temporary, growth is ongoing.

And don't forget, the peak unlocking period is also a key development phase for the project. A large influx of tokens into the market means more people can participate in ecological construction. Developers can be incentivized, community members can participate in governance, and partners can receive rewards. This positive cycle will accelerate ecological prosperity, ultimately reflecting on token value.

My advice is to treat unlocking as an opportunity rather than a threat. For long-term investors, they can use the price pullbacks caused by unlocking to increase their positions; for short-term traders, they can look for arbitrage opportunities in the fluctuations before and after unlocking. As long as BounceBit's fundamentals remain strong, the dilution caused by unlocking will eventually be offset by growth.

Finally, here's a data point: from October 2025 to December 2026, an estimated cumulative unlocking of about 1.4 billion BB is expected, and by then the circulation ratio will reach about 67%. This means that the most difficult dilution period will end next year. Having survived this period, the supply pressure will significantly ease, and the resistance to price increases will also disappear. For patient investors, now may be the golden opportunity for positioning.

@BounceBit #BounceBitPrime $BB