Recently, the international community has been spreading a rather interesting chart: based on the historical cycles of Bitcoin, the peak of the current cycle is very close.

  • Cycle 2014: Bitcoin peaked after 1,071 days from the bottom.

  • Cycle 2018: peaked after 1,064 days.

  • Current cycle (2021–2025): has run for 1,068 days.

If we 'look in the mirror of the past', it is clear that the peak of the cycle is only a few weeks or a few months away.

❖ Theoretically 'slow bull' (slow bull cycle)

It is true that many people are talking about the possibility that the market this time will not follow the traditional four-year cycle, but will last longer — that is, a slower and longer bull cycle. But stay alert:

Even if Bitcoin truly enters a 'slow bull', it is Bitcoin's own slow bull, not altcoin's.

Altcoins can surge strongly in the early stages, but when Bitcoin enters a correction or price stagnation phase, most altcoins will sell off sharply and lose liquidity. History has proven that this repeats many times.

❖ Even in a 'slow bull', a 30% correction is normal.

Remember the beginning of this year — Bitcoin was still in an uptrend, but there were still drops of 25–30% that were completely normal. A healthy upcycle always needs shakeouts to cleanse leverage and create a new base.

Therefore, if at this current stage you want to take some profit and reduce portfolio risk, that is not the wrong action.

Even in the case that the market still has excess strength, reducing position size after BTC has surged strongly since June is a reasonable move in terms of capital management.

❖ Conclusion

  • If the four-year cycle still holds true, the peak of the cycle is very close.

  • If the market truly enters a 'slow bull', there will still be deep corrections of 20–30%.

  • And regardless of which scenario occurs, maintaining discipline in taking profits and reducing risks when the market is too euphoric is always the right strategy.

The crypto market does not reward those who guess the peak correctly, but rewards those who know how to manage their positions at the right time.