The recent approval of the cryptocurrency spot ETF 'Universal Listing Standards' by the US SEC has completely changed the game, shifting the approval process from 'case-by-case approval' to 'standardized clearance'. This paves the way for a potential large-scale cryptocurrency ETF listing in October.$LTC , XRP, SOL,$ADA ,$DOGE becoming the first leading core candidates.
1. Fundamental Change: From 'Case-by-Case Approval' to 'Standardized Clearance'
On September 7, the SEC approved new rules, introducing 'Commodity Trust Shares' Universal Listing Standards, with the core changes as follows:
· Approval Method: From Individual Review → Quick Market Entry by Meeting Standards.
· Approval process: Simplified or bypassed the complex "19b-4" process, with the core shifting to the review of the "S-1" form.
· Approval time: From the usual 240 days → expected to shorten to 75 days.
The new regulations have opened a "fast track" for assets that meet the following conditions:
1. Traded in markets of specific monitoring organization members.
2. Futures contracts already regulated by CFTC have been listed for at least 6 months.
3. Meets the existing ETF asset allocation ratio requirements.
Two, Direct impact: October may become the "explosion period" for ETFs
· Application reset: On September 29, the SEC requested the ETF issuers of LTC, XRP, SOL, ADA, and DOGE to withdraw their original applications to comply with new standards. This is not a rejection but a switch in regulatory pathways.
· Date invalidation: The original decision deadline no longer holds reference value, all issuers start from the same line, and the SEC can quickly approve based on new standards at any time.
· Market expectations: The industry holds an optimistic view on the approval in October, believing that the speed may be "exceptionally fast."
Three, Analysis of the five leading candidate ETFs
1. XRP ETF
· Advantages: Futures have been listed on CME for over a year, fully compliant with new regulations; regarded by regulators as a "commodity"; active interaction between the SEC and the application organizations.
· Market view: Bloomberg analysts have raised the probability of approval to 95%.
2. SOL ETF
· Advantages: Several top institutions have submitted revised S-1 documents and are well-prepared.
· Market view: Bloomberg analysts have increased the probability of approval from 95% to 100%, believing it could be approved "at any time."
3. LTC ETF
· Advantages: Long history, stable compliance, technical architecture similar to Bitcoin, with minimal regulatory barriers.
4. ADA ETF
· Advantages: Converted from a grayscale application, its GDLC fund already includes ADA and has been approved, increasing the probability of approval.
5. DOGE ETF
· Significance: If approved, it will become the first Meme coin ETF, marking a significant milestone.
Conclusion
The ETF decision in October will be a key turning point for the maturity of the crypto market. The efficient approval channels brought by the new regulations will not only directly affect the prices of related cryptocurrencies but also determine the scale and speed of institutional capital inflows into the crypto market, providing core momentum for this bull market.
