Bitcoin's price surpassed $120,000 on October 2, 2025, reaching a seven-week high. As of October 3, 2025, Bitcoin trades near $121000 This surge is attributed to increased speculation on safe-haven assets amidst the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, strong inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, and historical seasonal strength in October, known as "Uptober".
Key Developments
ETF inflows: Bitcoin Spot ETFs saw $676 million in net inflows on October 1 alone, bringing the three-day total to $1.6 billion. BlackRock's IBIT ETF alone has accumulated $40 billion in the last year, entering the top 20 ETFs by assets under management (AUM). Total AUM for Bitcoin spot ETFs reached $155.9 billion, representing 6.66% of Bitcoin's market cap.
Government Shutdown Impact: The U.S. government shutdown is seen as driving investors towards alternative assets like Bitcoin, potentially boosting prices.
"Uptober" Rally: Bitcoin has historically performed well in October, gaining in 10 out of the past 12 years. This positive seasonality is contributing to the bullish sentiment.
Institutional Adoption: Several companies, including MicroStrategy and the Japanese firm Metaplanet, are increasing their Bitcoin holdings. Metaplanet recently purchased 5,268 BTC, becoming the fourth-largest corporate Bitcoin holder.
Mining Difficulty at All-Time High: Bitcoin's mining difficulty increased by 5%, marking the seventh consecutive increase since July. The network hashrate also reached a record high. This puts pressure on miners' profitability, as the "Hashprice" metric has fallen below $50/PH/s.
Market Sentiment: While market sentiment is generally bullish, technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are flashing "overbought" signals, suggesting potential for a short-term pullback or consolidation.
Analyst Views
Some analysts predict that if Bitcoin can clear the $120,000 - $122,000 resistance zone, it could reach new all-time highs in the fourth quarter.
JPMorgan suggests Bitcoin could reach $165,000.
One analyst noted that if Bitcoin reaches $115,000, over $8 billion worth of short positions could be liquidated, potentially triggering a short squeeze and further price increases.
