Markets Watching Jobs, Rates, and Shutdown Noise đ
This weekâs big watch is #ISM and payrolls. The U.S. economy still looks okay â GDPNow is tracking ~3.3%, consumption is firm, and inflation is cooling but stuck around 3%. The Fed isnât in a rush to cut more after the 25 bps âinsuranceâ move, and Powell basically reminded everyone that uncertainty is still high. That nudged yields up and reduced hopes for deep 2025 cuts.
Manufacturing and activity are holding up despite tariffs and labor issues, but the jobs market hasnât clearly rebounded yet. The labor cycle might bottom only in early 2026, so easing stays shallow unless growth really cracks. Rates feel stuck in a tug-of-war: short-end anchored by easing bias, long-end sticky with supply/term premium.
For markets, a strong jobs number could spike yields and hurt equities, while a weaker one would give the Fed more cover to ease slowly. As for the U.S. government shutdown drama â itâs more noise than real risk. History shows shutdowns barely dent markets; the last one in 2018â19 saw the S&P 500 climb 10%. For $BTC , any equity-driven dip is probably more of a buy-the-fear moment than a reason to chase green candles.
The U.S. economy isnât breaking, just cooling slowly. Rates likely drift, not dive. The real âtradeâ is fading shutdown headlines and watching payrolls as the key swing factor this week.
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