The U.S. government shutdown crisis is approaching, with a probability of 85%!
Bipartisan budget negotiations have reached an impasse, and the likelihood of a government shutdown continues to rise. If a shutdown occurs, hundreds of thousands of civil servants will be put on unpaid leave; more critically, the release of important economic data such as non-farm payrolls and CPI will be suspended.
This will have far-reaching implications for the crypto market. Firstly, the lack of economic data will make decision-making for the Federal Reserve more difficult, increasing market uncertainty and potentially triggering risk-off selling.
Secondly, most SEC employees will be on leave. The approval process for spot ETFs, including Solana and Litecoin, will also be paused, and the eagerly anticipated ETFs may be delayed.
Short-term market volatility may increase, and it is advised to reduce leverage and set stricter stop-loss limits.
For ETFs related to SOL, LTC, XRP, it is recommended to avoid in the short term; any news of approval delays may trigger a correction, but for long-term investors, it could be a positioning opportunity.
Some funds may shift towards safe-haven assets, with Bitcoin potentially favored over altcoins, and traditional safe-haven assets like gold also worth paying attention to.