Bitcoin continues to trade near the $112,000 level, recording daily gains estimated at 2.4%. Despite this recovery, the CME futures gap on the Chicago Exchange has emerged as a factor raising concerns about the short-term trends of the currency.
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CME Gap Alert and its Immediate Impact
Analyst DaanCrypto clarified that a new gap has appeared on Bitcoin futures within the 15-minute timeframe. He warns that if this gap is not closed quickly, and the price succeeds in breaking the key support level at $111,000, the short-term technical structure may be subjected to significant volatility, opening the door to the possibility of a sharp price correction.
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Holder confidence supports the long-term picture
In contrast, on-chain data reveals relative stability. CryptoQuant analyses indicate that the MVRV Ratio has recently stabilized around 2.0, a range that shows the market is moving in a balanced state: no excessive selling pressure due to panic, nor excessive optimism leading to a bubble.
As long-term investors show a commitment to their positions, this contributes to reducing the circulating supply and strengthens the price foundation, creating a clear contrast between immediate technical risks and strong structural support.
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Technical signals and market forecasts
The technical reading of the current picture highlights a clear struggle between buying and selling forces:
On the daily chart, the price rebounded from the lower limit of the Bollinger Band (BOLL).
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned around level 46 in a neutral state with a slight tendency toward weakness.
MACD signals suggest a slowdown in negative momentum.
Critical support levels: range between 109,000 and 111,000 dollars, and breaking them could drag the price toward the 200-day moving average near 106,000 dollars.
Resistance areas: located between 115,000 and 118,000 dollars, and breaking above them is essential to return to historical peak areas.
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Recovery in the derivatives market
Coinglass data indicates notable activity in the Bitcoin futures market:
Trading volume surged by 173% to reach 3.4 billion dollars.
Open contracts increased by about 2.59% to reach 79.4 billion dollars.
Despite this notable activity, the weighted funding rate has not recorded an unnatural spike, reflecting a relative caution in new positions.
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Summary
The Bitcoin market stands at a critical juncture between potential corrective risks triggered by the emergence of the CME gap, and long-term fundamental support backed by holder stability and healthy on-chain indicators. Monitoring developments in closing the CME gap alongside market liquidity will remain the decisive factor in determining the next path.
#Bitcoin_Analysis #CME_Gap #Crypto_Market #Investor_Confidence
