XRP is currently witnessing a pivotal turning point, facing short-term downward pressure while hopes for a significant breakout are increasing, supported by two key events: strong technical analysis and the fate of traded XRP funds (ETFs).

🟢 Positive aspects (bullish catalysts)

The positive forecasts are based on technical support and major institutional catalysts:

Critical technical support: XRP has successfully maintained its position above the $2.75 level, which is the minimum of the symmetrical triangle pattern. This level represents significant demand and large purchases (around 1.58 billion XRP), confirming price resilience.

Significant bullish targets: If the $2.75 level is maintained, the path becomes clear for a breakout at the resistance level of $2.86 and reaching the next bullish target at $3.62. Some analysts indicate targets ranging between $20 and $30 if healthy accumulation continues.

Q4 optimism (seasonality): Despite historically weak October, data shows that the period from November to December is the best for XRP, with an average gain of 51%, favoring the start of strong bullish momentum in the last quarter.

XRP Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs): Key deadlines for the SEC's decisions on XRP ETFs are approaching, especially Grayscale's decision on October 18. Approval is expected to lead to massive cash inflows (estimated at $4-8 billion annually), providing a huge price boost.

🔴 Key downside and risks

Investors should be aware of immediate risks threatening to increase market volatility:

Risk of slipping below support: If XRP fails to hold and breaks below the $2.75 level, it is likely to lead to a violent sell-off with a downward target of $2.00.

100-day resistance: The price faces immediate strong resistance (wall of resistance) at $2.81, supported by moving averages, which may hinder any attempts at a short-term rebound.

"Sell the news" scenario: There are warnings that the big expectations for ETF approvals may already be partially priced in. This means that an approval decision may not lead to a significant price increase, potentially followed by sharp profit-taking by traders (selling the news).

💡 Summary

XRP is currently on the brink: either technical support strength and increasing ETF hopes lead to a significant price breakout in Q4, or failure to hold above $2.75 or disappointment from the SEC decision leads to a sharp correction.

Focus should be on:

Monitoring the critical support level at $2.75.

Monitoring ETF decisions between October 18 and 25.

Note: This analysis does not constitute investment advice. Always make decisions based on your own research and assessment of individual risks.

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