Trump is starting another tariff war, and the market is down again. I checked the possible reasons immediately, but no one knows exactly why the drop occurred; we can only speculate based on the timing of the drop and the events at that time. The key is not to find the reason, but to anticipate how to respond after the drop, that is the crucial part!
Next Friday's non-farm payroll data is expected to double, as the July data was only 22,000, the lowest of the year, with limited downside. The remaining interest rate decisions for the year are in October, and if the non-farm data meets expectations, it will be unfavorable for interest rate cuts.
Today's cryptocurrency fear\greed index is 29 (extreme fear), with turning points usually occurring when everyone is panicking and everyone is greedy.
The liquidation map shows that in the past 24 hours, a total of 260.547 people have been liquidated across the network, with a total liquidation amount of $
1.189 billion USD, long positions liquidated at 1.070 billion USD, short positions liquidated at 119 million USD. Bulls have been liquidated, fuel is exhausted.
Bitcoin's C wave decline is nearing its end, currently near the channel, and the decline may end at any time. It is expected that during the National Day holiday, the big A will be closed, and the crypto market may rebound. You can build long positions in the low range; don't panic if you're stuck; the National Day can release the positions. Ethereum has one more wave of increase on the daily line, and the last two months of the year will have market movement.
BTC
Bitcoin price has fallen to the support level of 108500 as expected, currently showing a clear downward trend, with moving averages in a bearish arrangement. RSI is oversold, and there may be a technical rebound in the short term, but trading volume is low, which may only lead to sideways fluctuations. Looking at the daily line, the pullback has not ended, and the price may test the previous low of 107200 again. If it breaks this, it may fall below the 100,000 mark.
Strategy: Support at 107500, 106132, 104757; resistance at 114000; key position at 109465; pay attention to whether it can hold during the day, and whether it can rebound to 111950.
ETH
Ethereum's trend is weak, with five consecutive daily declines. Each rebound has been weak. The current price has just dropped to the top of the previous consolidation area, which has now become resistance. So the current overall outlook is still bearish. If you want to try for a rebound, going long requires paying attention to the support level around 3500.
Strategy: Support at 3724, 3604, 3526; resistance at 4295; key position at 3895; pay attention to gains and losses during the day, and whether 4010 can break through and retest 4110.
Shanzhai
XPL performed brilliantly last night, as planned, the airdrop ignited the market, attracting hot money to flood in, with funds following in ASTER, STBL, etc. The market maker took advantage to push the price up, liquidated a wave of shorts, and the trend met expectations, but I bought too little on the bottom fishing, added some at 0.8, and will replenish after a pullback.
Yesterday I complained about OKB and XDOG, hoping they could do better, and today they performed well indeed. It's really not easy in the secondary market these days; it feels like I've repaid debts from my past life. Currently, I can only bottom fish mainstream coins like ETH and SOL. The overall trend hasn't changed; BTC surged from last year to the beginning of this year, ETH has been on a rally since April this year for half a year, and now it’s a pullback after the new high, and it will continue to surge, with altcoins accelerating upwards.
Summarized that 43 altcoins were launched on the B exchange's secondary market in 2025.
They are: ANIME, BERA, LAYER, KAITO, SHELL, GPS, BMT, PARTI, BABY, HYPER, SIGN, STO, NXPC, HARDAL, SOPH, RESOLV, HOME, SPK, NEWT, SAHARA, LA, ERA, C, TREE, TOWNS, PROVE, PLUME, DOLO, SHELL, MITO, SOMI, OPEN, LINEA, HOLO, ZKC, AVNT, BARD, 0G, HEMI, XPL, MIRA
So everyone understands, right? Even though the total market value of altcoins in 2025 exceeds that of 2021, many people still have not made a profit. The reason lies in the market being fragmented and high speculative risks.
Which coin should I bottom fish?
First choice is ETH, BTC and TOTAL3 have all shown weekly top diverging, only ETH's trend is very healthy. ETH/USDT and ETH/BTC are expected to usher in a second wave of weekly increases. The average cost of these two coins BMNR and SBET is millions of ETH at 3600-4000, and the future market looks promising.
Rose
Aster official 'sister' coin, Rose, I have entered around a market value of 140,000, with great potential. Backed by Aster, fitting into popular sectors, favored by CZ; the community is active, with many big names joining, aiming to create the first Aster concept launch platform; community-driven at its core, long-term value is promising. Compared to popular sectors that lack sustainability, Rose has better development prospects, and I suggest participating in community building.
One tree cannot make a forest, a lone sail does not sail far! In the circle, if you do not have a good circle, and no first-hand news from the crypto world, then I suggest you follow Lao Wang, who will help you profit without investment, welcome you to join the team!!!
