The Federal Reserve's rate cut in September is particularly worth pondering at the inflation level of 2.9%—this figure is clearly higher than previous levels during meetings, yet they still pressed the rate cut button, essentially sending a clear signal to the market: the threshold for rate cuts has been substantially lowered. In other words, as long as inflation in October and December can remain below 3% without 'peeking out,' the probability of continuing rate cuts is quite high, and this move feels more like a direct injection of a 'booster shot' to the market.
To me, this interest rate cut is less of a routine policy adjustment and more of a 'special favorable anchor point.' It has completely dispelled market doubts over the past six months about whether the Federal Reserve would truly initiate a rate-cutting cycle, effectively nailing the vague expectations into a clear direction. As for the game of 'favorable outcomes turning into short-term negatives,' there is indeed such a possibility in short-term fluctuations, but looking at the longer cycle, the expectations for rate cuts in October and December, the sustained effects of liquidity release, and even the potential for restarting QE are all paving a mid-to-long-term upward logic for the financial market.
Another signal that cannot be ignored is the successive approval of altcoin ETFs. The current state of low trading volume reminds me of the scenario when the ETH ETF was approved in mid-2024— the market first goes through a period of calm digestion, and only after the chips settle and emotional consensus forms, will we welcome a true trend rise; the current 'quietness' might just be a window for positioning.
Based on these judgments, my current operational framework is very clear, with three core words: Stability, Precision, Patience.
1. Mental Anchoring: One must be wary of the possibility of BTC reaching a peak stage, but also understand the logic of large capital— just like Buffett's high cash reserves, the wait-and-see attitude of some capital itself is a signal that the market needs to digest.
2. Operation Rhythm: Maintain a cautious attitude of 'trembling with fear', but never let fear disrupt your rhythm. Market fluctuations are the norm; losing operational discipline is the real taboo.
3. Targets and Positions: Continue to layout mainstream altcoins in a phased DCA manner, focusing on public chain tokens that have been approved for ETFs—these types of assets have a more solid long-term logic and are not just short-term speculative hotspots. Low-position chips will not be easily surrendered; at least they will be held until the next full moon cycle, and adjustments will be made once the market trend is clearer.
Finally, I want to emphasize: the short-term fluctuations in this round of market are highly probable, but the certainty of the larger direction is increasing. For traders, patience and execution at this moment are far more valuable than following the K-line with emotional actions— the market is never short of opportunities; what is lacking is people who can wait for those opportunities.
