I still remember the bear market brought by the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. Oil, as the mother of industry, first cut supplies to Europe, making European funds very tight. Global liquidity has lost a lot of vitality and has decided to avoid risks, thus entering a prolonged bear market process. The recent situation is even more similar; geopolitical risks are causing funds to continuously avoid risks, and European funds may also leave all markets in advance to prepare for winter reserves.
The current risk comes from geopolitical issues, as the sentiment regarding interest rate cuts has already been digested. The current problem stems from Trump's second reiteration of tariffs and the direct confrontation between the US and Russia.
Some funds are afraid of certainty issues and will flow into the more stable gold market. As geopolitical issues and tariffs continue to ferment, latecomer funds will also start to withdraw in the short term and enter a risk-averse state.
Is it a bull market or a bear market that has arrived?
From a technical perspective, Ethereum should see a rebound around 3930, and there will also be a rebound around 3800, considering whether it is stable. However, the current risk is too great; geopolitical issues have caused the overall market to collapse directly. Ethereum has not rebounded at all and has already broken below the upper range. Risks are continuously accumulating; I do not believe the bear market has arrived, but wanting to end the downward trend is no longer a technical matter.
In the long run, the market will be favorable; interest rate cuts will slowly direct funds towards risky markets, but in the short term, the explosive points are much larger. The technical aspect has not ended its downward trend, and geopolitical issues along with the reiteration of tariffs will keep market funds in a risk-averse state unless something changes the current situation!
First point, after the expiration of the weekly options at 3:30 PM tomorrow, will there be a spike towards the end? The daily chart is missing a big spike. 3700
Second point, the non-farm payrolls in the first week of next month will be a positive factor for market risk aversion funds, leading to a reflow of funds towards risk assets.
Third point, Trump will quickly resolve the geopolitical risks with Russia, or the market will take a long time to digest expectations, but I think the possibility is relatively low.
Fourth point, the expectations for interest rate cuts in October will bring the market back, and after the Federal Reserve stops cutting rates, funds will start to inject into the market. Therefore, funds will look for opportunities to ambush and wait for certain key positions to appear before we consider entering.
These four points must be completed before the overall downward trend has a chance to end. I have mentioned many times that the market is unstable, and we must wait, wait. Use time to pursue certainty.#加密市场回调 #山寨币战略储备
