Stunning Delay! Non-farm Payroll 'Difficult Birth', Global Market Barefoot! On October 10, the night before Bitcoin's major change, is your position waiting to die?

What the market fears most is not bad news, but 'uncertainty'.

Now, the U.S. government may shut down, and even key economic data has to be 'late'. Traders' anxiety has already been clearly priced in the options market!

Simply put, the U.S. September non-farm payroll data, originally scheduled for release on October 3, may be delayed due to the U.S. government shutdown.

The foreign exchange options market has secretly begun to bet on this 'delay risk'.

For example, options expiring on October 10 and 17 have suddenly been snatched up, especially the contracts for October 10, which are the most sought after, equivalent to someone buying 'insurance' for market volatility in those days.

I think this reflects two layers of signals:

The market is betting on 'volatility explosion': global exchange rate volatility is currently as low as the calm before a storm, but options buyers are willing to pay a premium, indicating they sense that the non-farm delay will compound policy uncertainty. Once the data is released, it may trigger severe fluctuations in exchange rates.

A similar situation occurred during the 2018 U.S. government shutdown, when U.S. stocks and Bitcoin both experienced flash crashes.

Don’t be complacent in the crypto circle: Non-farm data directly affects the strength of the U.S. dollar, and there is often a seesaw effect between the dollar and Bitcoin.

If the delay in data leads to confusion in Federal Reserve policy expectations, dollar volatility may transmit to the cryptocurrency market.

If even traditional institutions are quietly insuring against 'data delays', shouldn’t we crypto players also check our position protection in advance?

Let’s discuss in the comments: Do you think this non-farm delay will become the fuse for Bitcoin's trend change?

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