September 25, 2025 Market Analysis
The market has fallen again, which confirms my worries from a few days ago. The market is in a relatively FOMO stage, and with a risk signal of single-day liquidation exceeding 10 billion RMB appearing, the probability of a decline has increased. Although I haven't reduced my position myself, I just restrained myself from increasing my position and buying new coins. This wave of decline, while within expectations, is still somewhat concerning. The main issue is that the price of Ethereum has directly hit 4000 USD, and it had previously been supported at 4200. However, the good news is that Bitcoin has not broken its position, with support around 109000, so this decline does not count as a failure.
Continuing to discuss the liquidation amount of 1.5 billion USD, based on previous historical experience, a super crazy bull market often experiences 2-3 rounds before completely suppressing the bull momentum. Additionally, this time it is 1.7 billion USD, which is not overly exaggerated compared to the previous bull market's scale. Therefore, in my view, this wave of decline still belongs to a correction. Of course, regarding the next rise, whether the funds will seek new hot sectors or continue digging into the Binance series will depend on the situation. An undeniable fact is that the biggest driving force behind this round of Ethereum's rise is those US stock companies that imitate MicroStrategy, which currently have no activity.
It is worth noting that the first 1-3 days after a significant drop often carry a higher risk period. It may be appropriate to bottom fish, but I would suggest focusing on funds that have reduced their positions at high levels, treating it as a swing trade. I know that at this moment, everyone needs confidence, but to be honest, I am not particularly worried right now. Firstly, the recent market has allowed some to make money through hot events, secondly, the holdings are mainly ETH, which has a relatively low cost, and thirdly, there are still some events worth making money from in the near future. The rhythm of the bull market is relatively good.
Next, the main focus and energy investment should be on Aster's trading mining. After two days of comparative research, I believe that grid trading is a relatively good entry method, as it carries no witch risk and the position risk is controllable. I will find some time to livestream and discuss this in detail over the next two days. Additionally, XPL will go live tonight. This project previously made a lot of money on USDT chain investment, with extremely high returns, and there will be other new investment opportunities appearing later, which we can pay attention to together.
Thank you for your attention and likes.#币安HODLer空投XPL
