Macroeconomic Perspective: Policies and Statements Disturbing the Market

Powell Warns of Overvaluation in US Stocks: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has publicly stated that, based on various indicators, "the valuation of US stocks is quite high."

Internal Disagreement:

  • Chicago Fed President Goolsbee Warns Against Hasty Continuous Rate Cuts, Believes It Is Necessary to Guard Against Persistent Inflation Risks.

  • Fed Governor Bowman Warns That 'We Have Fallen Behind the Situation', Supports Three Rate Cuts This Year.

Market Rate Cut Expectations: According to CME's "FedWatch" tool, the market expects a 93% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October.

Political figures' statements

  • Trump administration pushes trade policy: The U.S. officially announces a 15% tariff on imported cars and car products from the EU, which may exacerbate inflationary pressures and affect global supply chains.

  • U.S. Treasury Secretary pressures the Federal Reserve: Secretary Besant publicly criticizes Powell, stating that he is 'backing down' on interest rate cuts, urging a reduction of 100-150 basis points before the end of the year. Besant also revealed that he is interviewing 11 candidates for Federal Reserve chair to strengthen the demand for easing.

Politics and policy: Continuation of Trump's 'America First'

  • Trade policy: The Trump administration re-emphasizes 'America First' during the United Nations General Assembly, maintaining a protectionist stance on issues like climate change, immigration, and trade, with a 15% tariff on EU cars as a manifestation of its policy.

  • China Policy: Its strategy emphasizes short-term self-interest and reduces external cooperation, which may exacerbate global political and economic uncertainty, affecting risk assets including cryptocurrencies.


Sector and individual stock movements

  • PayFi sector rises against the trend by 1.61%, becoming the only sector to rise today, with XRP up 2.14% and Ultima (ULTIMA) up 6.55%.

  • DeFi and Meme sectors declined: DeFi sector fell 1.02%, Meme sector fell 1.17%.

  • Notable tokens with price increase: Aethir (ATH) +15.37%, Flare (FLR) +11.45%, Aster (ASTER) +9.14%.

  • Tokens with significant price drop: OG (OG) -16.02%, Pump.fun (PUMP) -6.46%.

Institutional and regulatory dynamics

  • Hong Kong Monetary Authority warns of stablecoin risks: Reminds citizens that no stablecoin issuer licenses have been issued, and any issuance or promotional activities are illegal, cautioning against related fake news.

  • Australia advances crypto regulation: Releases a draft regulation for crypto asset platforms, proposing to extend financial services laws to the crypto industry, requiring operators to obtain licenses.

  • Listed companies increase their holdings in cryptocurrencies:

    • Brazilian company OranjeBTC purchases 3,650 bitcoins for $385 million.

    • The board of Nine Purple New Energy approves a crypto asset investment policy of up to $1 billion, initially limited to BTC, ETH, and BNB.

Focus for tomorrow

  • Economic data: Pay attention to the upcoming announcement of the August core PCE price index in the United States (the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator).

  • Market sentiment: Whether it can continue to recover depends on closely monitoring BTC's support near $113,000.

  • Regulatory dynamics: Keep an eye on the latest developments and market reactions to regulatory policies in places like Hong Kong and Australia.