1. Current Macroeconomic Environment + Market Sentiment
Capital sentiment remains cautious
In the past few days, the market direction has been a bit chaotic: there are short positions and support, volatility and false breakouts, and overall willingness to enter the market is weak. Many people are mainly observing and are hesitant to take large positions. In terms of sentiment, the fear of being 'cut' is stronger than the desire to make profits.
China and the United States / Macroeconomic Factors Disturbance
Although the cryptocurrency market is a self-contained system, external macroeconomic factors, US interest rate policies, and regulatory news still act as 'uninvited' external disturbances. Any small change can be amplified infinitely by the market.
The technical chart has both support and pressure
Among mainstream coins, Bitcoin and Ethereum have a certain level of market credibility and liquidity. Although the technical aspect is weak, there are still opportunities. The key is to look at the support, resistance, volume, and breakthrough of these factors.
2. The possible paths for Bitcoin / Ethereum on 9.24
Here are my judgments and thoughts; they are not absolute. What we need is a roadmap + risk control.
Bitcoin (BTC)
Resistance range: around 113,000 (there's a saying that 'breaking through 113000 is very critical') 巨亨網
Support range: 110,000 / around 111,000 is a 'psychological defense line / short-term support' 巨亨網+1
Short-term trend may be:
If there is an upward breakthrough, challenge the range of 113,000-115,000;
If it is suppressed and falls back, it may test the support around 111,000 again, or even move down slightly.
Operation suggestions (short-term):
Mainly short in the suppression area (looking short in the range of 113,000 ～ 114,500) 巨亨網+1
Try to go long with light positions in the support area (enter long in the range of 111,000～111,800) 巨亨網+1
Stop loss / take profit must be set, don't be greedy.
Ethereum (ETH)
Resistance range: around 4,230~4,260, many analyses consider it to be a short-term resistance area 巨亨網+1
Support range: around 4,100 is a strong short-term support 巨亨網+1
Trend may be:
If it breaks through the area around 4,230-4,260, it may further attempt to go up;
If it cannot break through, it may oscillate within the range or even return to support.
Operation suggestions:
Short with light positions in the resistance area;
Try to go long in the support area;
If it breaks, follow the trend.
3. The script I think is most likely + risk points
The script I am most optimistic about
The market will have a strong resistance test around 113,000. If it breaks through successfully, it may trigger a rebound, and there is a hint of a 'wind shift' in the air. But if the breakthrough fails, it will be pushed back, continuing to oscillate mainly in the range of 111,000—113,000. Ethereum will follow Bitcoin, and if BTC has a sense of direction, ETH may follow.
To put it bluntly, these days are mostly a 'testing period + washing period', it won't suddenly surge or plummet.
Main risk points / pitfalls
False breakout misguidance: It may look like a breakout, but it is actually a false breakout, and many people get cut when they follow in.
Insufficient volume support: Prices must have volume support when they rise or fall, otherwise, it's all just castles in the air.
External news impact: policies, regulations, macro data, US dollar, interest rates, etc. can change at any time.
Panic spreads: Once the decline expands, retail investors are prone to panic sell.
4. Here are my 'teacher's position & operation rules'
Because the risk is high, I won't heavily invest in the competition. This is my mindset; brothers can take it and improve it:
BTC position ≥ 30%, ensure core asset strength
ETH / BNB / SOL should be pulled up as mainstream allocations, don't put all the pressure on one.
Altcoins / high-risk coins should be kept below 20–30% of the total position, with a single one not exceeding 5–10%
Stop loss and take profit must be set, even if it's a small position, there should be loss protection
Enter and exit in batches / operate in phases, do not go all in at once
Mental preparation: Volatility back and forth is the norm, fear, greed, and hesitation may lead to being trapped or cut.
5. A few heartfelt words for retail investors / beginners
Brothers, no matter how bad the market is, don't panic and run away; no matter how good the market is, don't rush blindly forward. No one in the crypto world can guarantee to be right all the time, but those who have direction + rhythm + self-discipline can often withstand the storm.
Today's trend is chaotic like a 'typhoon', but tomorrow it could be 'sunshine and brightness'. What you need to do is protect yourself well, don't let emotions control you, act according to the rules, keep your cards close to your chest, so you still have a chance to laugh until the end.#加密市场回调