Brothers, the recent market situation is truly alarming, with good news coming in waves. It feels like the bulls have donned iron gloves: the Federal Reserve is going to cut interest rates, large funds are entering the market, and whales are making big bets——doesn't it sound like the rhythm of a 'bull market taking off'? But reality hits back, as ETH steps into the $4000 lifeline, almost shattering the bulls' 'faith'.

Why is there so much good news flying around, yet the market is dropping harder than anyone else? This is the core we must understand today: is it that the bulls are weak, or is the big player playing a game?

📉 Review of yesterday: Liquidation + De-leveraging = 'Bloodbath' scene

In the past 24 hours, the market has been forcibly deleveraged, with reports of liquidations ranging from 150 million to over a billion dollars. Short-term selling pressure has reached its peak, and market fluctuations are comparable to a roller coaster.

Moreover, on-chain data shows that the supply of ETH on exchanges is at a multi-year low, which is generally favorable for the medium to long term. However, once leveraged positions are liquidated in succession, short-term trends still cannot withstand the selling pressure—this is the difference between spot and leverage.

🔍 Technical analysis: Clear traces of bearish control

The 1-hour K-line makes it evident: After digesting the previous sharp decline through sideways movement, the price directly broke down the range this morning with increased volume, and selling pressure continues, favoring bears.

The lower band of the Bollinger Bands has been breached, and volatility is trending downwards; the short-term moving averages are dead-crossing and diverging downwards, indicating that short-term bulls have little strength.

Current price is around 4080 dollars, with support at 4000. If it fails to hold, the next target is 3900–3800; resistance above is first at 4200, before discussing the rebuilding of a bullish structure.


💡 Favorable news ≠ real bullish: Three major misconceptions debunked

Interest rate cut expectations have been overly priced in: The market has already bet on the Fed cutting rates, and the news has instead become an 'excuse for selling'.

A large transfer does not mean buying the dip: That 240 million dollars flowing into a new wallet seems like large holders entering the market, but it could actually be rebalancing or off-market settlement.

Whales may also be harvested: Whale 4178 opened a long position, and 4078 was liquidated, with the market hitting a low of 4080, almost at the point of liquidation. The dealers are ruthless when it comes to eliminating whales.

🎯 Operation suggestion: The key watershed is 4000

Holding 4000: There is still room for speculation, bulls need to be cautious but not desperate.

Losing 4000: Act decisively and short the trend, do not hesitate.

Looking upwards at 4200: Only by standing back above this level is there a chance to rebuild a bullish structure.

📝 Green-haired suggestion:
The favorable news is merely a smokescreen; the real direction has already been laid out in the market. Don’t be blinded by flashy news; key price levels, volume, and rhythm are the hard indicators.

Keep your positions light and stop losses strict; don’t emulate whales being spared by the market. In the crypto world, those who truly survive are not the fastest runners, but those who know how to dodge bullets.#加密市场回调 $ETH