💬 Event Focus:
U.S. Treasury Secretary Benson stated today that he is "surprised" by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's failure to clarify the interest rate direction. He pointed out that recent revisions to employment data suggest potential economic concerns and emphasized that given the Federal Reserve's intensive speaking schedule next week, Powell should indicate a rate cut of 100-150 basis points.
📉 Policy Background Analysis:
Data Anomaly: Recent key data such as non-farm employment has shown significant revisions, and history indicates that such revisions often signal an economic turning point;
Time Window: The Federal Reserve will hold a series of high-level talks next week, including key occasions such as the Jackson Hole annual meeting;
Market expectations: The current futures market has priced in a 68% probability of a rate cut in September, but the expected magnitude is generally below 50 basis points.
⚖️ Comparison of perspectives:
Treasury's stance: Benson advocates for aggressive rate cuts (100-150bp), believing it can prevent an economic hard landing;
Federal Reserve's dilemma: Powell may need to balance inflation stickiness and economic risks, and strong signals may trigger excessive market reactions;
Institutional forecasts: Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and others believe that the first round of interest rate cuts is unlikely to exceed 50 basis points, and the finance minister's statement may be a form of political pressure.
🔍 Key impact areas:
Cryptocurrency market: If an unexpectedly dovish signal is released, the U.S. dollar index may come under pressure or boost the prices of assets like Bitcoin;
U.S. stock sectors: Tech stocks and small-cap stocks are most sensitive to interest rates, and expectations of rate cuts will directly drive valuation recovery;
Government bond market: The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield has fallen 38 basis points from the peak in August, reflecting part of the interest rate cut expectations in advance.
⚠️ Risk warning:
This time, the finance minister rarely directly calls out to the Federal Reserve, which may interfere with the independence of policy and market expectations. We need to be wary of the reverse volatility triggered by Powell's "hawkish response" next week.
📌 Summary: The policy game between the Treasury and the Federal Reserve enters a critical week. If the signal of a 150 basis point rate cut is realized, it will become the strongest monetary policy shift signal of 2025!
💡 Keeping up with macro changes, pay attention to the old crypto leader, and interpret the impact of policies on the cryptocurrency market in real time! ##山寨币战略储备
