The September interest rate meeting has concluded, with several Federal Reserve officials commenting on the 2025 interest rate policy, showing a clear divergence between hawkish and dovish stances:
• Bostic (non-voter for 2025): No further room for rate cuts; one rate cut in 2025 is sufficient.
• Musalem (voter for 2025): Rising inflation risks will constrain the space for rate cuts; caution is needed in advancing rate cuts under financial easing.
• Milan (new voter for 2025): Did not actively discuss monetary policy, but supports a significant rate cut, believing the reasonable range for the federal funds rate is 2%-2.5%.
• Goolsbee (voter for 2025): The neutral interest rate should be 100-125 basis points lower than current levels, with a neutral stance leaning dovish.
• Bowman (voter for 2025): The Federal Reserve's policy may face serious lagging risks; the worsening job market necessitates accelerating rate cuts.
Overall, officials still carry strong uncertainty regarding the two rate cuts after 2025, consistent with Powell's statement of being 'data-driven.' The key decision-making will focus on two major indicators: rising unemployment rate, declining labor employment, or falling inflation may all increase the probability of rate cuts, where labor market signals may carry even more weight $BTC