After the September FOMC meeting, several Federal Reserve officials expressed their views on interest rates for 2025. Among them:
Bostic (non-voting member for 2025) believes that there is currently no room for further rate cuts and thinks that one rate cut in 2025 would be sufficient.
Moussailem (voting member for 2025) believes that if inflation risks rise further, there is limited room for additional rate cuts, and factors such as a looser financial environment mean that the Fed should cautiously move forward with further cuts.
The newly appointed Milan (voting member for 2025) did not actively discuss future monetary policy but still supports significant rate cuts, stating that the reasonable range for the Fed funds rate is approximately 2% to 2.5%.
Goolsbee (voting member for 2025) believes that the neutral rate should be 100-125 basis points lower than the current level, theoretically leaning towards a neutral dovish stance.
Bowman (voting member for 2025) believes that the Fed faces serious lagging risks and will need to accelerate rate cuts if the labor market continues to worsen.
Overall, the Fed officials have a strong uncertainty regarding the last two rate cuts in 2025, which reaffirms Powell's statement that more data needs to be evaluated before decisions can be made. It also provides a clear indication that if the unemployment rate rises and labor employment declines, the likelihood of rate cuts will increase. If inflation decreases, it will also increase the likelihood of cuts, but the labor market's share may be even more critical. $BTC