When everyone fears the contraction, the giant whale $BTC is laying out the next wave of a big market!
Extreme contraction often signifies that a change is imminent — just a choice of direction needs a key
Bitcoin is continuously consolidating within a narrow range on the hourly level, with prices fluctuating around $115,000, failing to effectively attack after falling from a high point of $117,000
1. Latest technical analysis!
1. The most significant feature is the extreme shrinkage of trading volume, with today's estimate only 2243, down over 95% from the 5-day average of 53,000, the market is in a stalemate of wait-and-see
2. MACD bottom divergence is emerging: DIF and DEA are still below the zero axis, but the MACD histogram has turned positive to 187.4, forming a bottom divergence structure, indicating weakening bearish momentum, and the possibility of a technical rebound
3. Moving average pressure has not been broken: prices are suppressed by MA5 and MA10, and a volume breakout above $116,000 is needed to open up upward space, with $113,000 being a key support in the recent period; if lost, it will look down to $111,000
2. On-chain dynamics and market sentiment
1. On-chain data shows that BTC balances on exchanges continue to flow out, and whale addresses are tentatively increasing their holdings
2. The put/call ratio in the options market has dropped to 0.65, reflecting that derivative investors have a bullish sentiment in the short term
3. On the macro level, attention should be paid to the speeches of Federal Reserve officials in the evening; if dovish signals are released, it may become a catalyst for breaking the balance
When the market is in extreme contraction, it often signifies the brewing of a big market.
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