S&P 500: does this look like a Blow-off Top?

I wish I could say that we are at the beginning of a new bull market, but the truth is different: most likely, we are at its final stage.

The bull cycle began in March 2009. And if it ends by the end of this year, the growth will be exactly +1000% over 17 years. Beautiful and symbolic.

Since April 2025, the market has entered a parabolic phase — one we only see close to peaks:

— the belief that "we cannot lose",

— the conviction that "this time it's different",

— the hype around AI as a new paradigm (in 2000, the same role was played by dot.com companies),

— Wall Street persuading retail to "keep buying".

The fundamentals are also overheated:

— The average P/E for S&P 500 today is 2 times higher than the century average.

— Buffett Indicator = 215% (Market Cap/GDP) — this is a historical maximum. For comparison: the dot.com bubble was at 138%, and before the 2008 crisis — 105%. No wonder Buffett has $350 billion in cash.

Everything is clear on the chart: wave completion according to Elliott, extreme deviation from long-term averages, Fibonacci levels where the market could return.

What should an investor do?

The top is likely still ahead, so there is time to prepare. But the strategy of "burying your head in the sand" could be too costly.