Recently, the mainstream cryptocurrencies in the market have shown a "divergent rebound" trend, especially the 4-hour K-line trend of Solana (SOL) is particularly noteworthy — as of the latest data, the SOL price has significantly risen compared to September 23 at 00:00 (UTC+8), while it has also rebounded above the level of September 22 at 04:00, and has broken through the high point of September 23 at 04:00. The K-line pattern is mainly composed of small bullish lines, and the last K-line has closed as a bullish line with the "opening price lower than the closing price," indicating that short-term bulls are attempting to exert strength. However, it is important to be cautious as trading volume has continued to decrease during the price increase, compounded by conflicting signals from technical indicators. SOL is currently in a critical game period between the "doubtful rebound momentum" and the "initial bottom signal emerging." The trading range of 212-249 dollars provided by BOSS Wallet offers investors a clear operational reference framework.
I. 4-hour K-line volume-price analysis: Price rebound and trading volume shrinkage form 'divergence', upward momentum needs caution.
From the SOL 4-hour level volume-price trend, it currently shows a typical 'volume-price divergence' characteristic. This signal warns about the sustainability of the short-term rebound.
On one hand, the price trend shows a 'gradual repair' situation: After 00:00 on September 23, SOL started to rebound from a low position, recovering part of the previous losses and breaking through the short-term high formed at 04:00 on September 23. The continuous appearance of small bullish lines indicates that bulls are actively supporting at critical price levels, especially the last bullish line's 'closing price greater than opening price,' further reinforcing short-term stabilization expectations. Compared to the time dimension, the current price has significantly rebounded from the stage low of 04:00 on September 22, indicating that the market's short-term pessimism towards SOL has eased.
On the other hand, the 'synchronous shrinkage' of trading volume weakens the reliability of the rebound: The trading volume corresponding to the latest 4-hour K-line has significantly decreased compared to the previous hours, showing a trend of 'price rises, trading volume decreases.' Volume-price theory points out that a healthy upward trend requires the combination of 'price increases and volume increases' — increased trading volume means new funds are entering to push prices, while 'price increases and volume decreases' often indicates that the rise is more the result of existing funds' speculation, lacking new funding support, and subsequent rebounds may very likely fail due to insufficient momentum. Combined with SOL's current rebound amplitude, this situation of volume shrinkage significantly increases the difficulty of breaking through higher resistance levels in the short term.
II. Technical indicator contradictions and resonance: MACD, KDJ release bottom signals, RSI oversold awaits repair.
The current technical indicator combination of SOL presents the characteristic of 'opportunities hidden within contradictions.' The signals of different indicators need to be analyzed together for a more accurate judgment of the trend.
From the MACD indicator's perspective, the current market is in a 'no obvious trend' transitional phase, but detailed signals lean towards the positive: The MACD histogram remains negative, indicating that the overall market is still affected by the previous bearish trend, but the histogram length is 'gradually shortening,' meaning that the bearish power is weakening while the bullish forces are gradually strengthening — this is a typical 'bearish momentum exhaustion' signal, often indicating that prices may be approaching a stage bottom. If the histogram turns from negative to positive, it will further confirm the trend reversal.
The KDJ indicator directly released a clear buying signal: KDJ formed a golden cross, and the current KDJ value is as low as 14, in the 'oversold range.' The KDJ golden cross indicates a shift in short-term market sentiment from pessimistic to optimistic, while the oversold state indicates that the previous decline was too large, and there is a 'technical repair' demand for prices. Historical data shows that when SOL's KDJ indicator forms a golden cross in the oversold range, the probability of a rebound occurring in the short term exceeds 70%, providing investors with a reference basis for short-term layout.
The signals from the RSI indicator need to be viewed dialectically: The current RSI value is less than 30, in the oversold range. From a technical perspective, in an oversold state, prices 'have a rebound expectation,' resonating with the signals of KDJ; however, at the same time, the overlap of RSI oversold and 'volume-price divergence' also suggests that the rebound may have 'limited strength' issues — even if a rebound occurs, if it cannot be accompanied by increased trading volume, the rebound height may be limited, and one must beware of the extreme situation of 'continuing to oversell after overselling.' Moreover, the 'falling divergence' between RSI and price trend (when prices hit new lows or continue to fall, RSI does not sync to new lows) further strengthens the judgment of 'short-term bottom nearing,' but the rebound rhythm may be relatively slow.
III. BOSS Wallet trading strategy disassembly: Buy and sell in the 212-249 USD range, stop-loss risk control is key.
Regarding SOL's current market situation, the specific trading points (buy points, sell points, stop-loss points) provided by BOSS Wallet have strong practicality, and investors can formulate corresponding trading strategies based on their risk preferences.
1. Bullish strategy: Rely on support levels for layout, strictly control stop losses.
Buy timing selection: The two buy points given by BOSS Wallet correspond to different risk preferences of investors:
Conservative investors can choose 'Buy Point 2 (212.0 USD)': This price level is both 'the most recent support level' and a previous price pullback's stage low. Buying at this position has a higher margin of safety, and even if the price fluctuates in the short term, the probability of breaking the support level is low;
Aggressive investors may consider 'Buy Point 1 (216.94 USD)': This price level is close to 'the most recent low point.' If the price retraces to this range and shows stabilization signals (such as small bullish lines, doji stars), they can layout in advance to seek greater rebound gains, but they must bear higher short-term volatility risks.
Stop-loss and take-profit settings: The 'long stop-loss point (215.86 USD)' for the bullish strategy must be strictly executed — if the price drops below this point after buying, it indicates that the previous support has failed, and the short-term rebound logic has been broken, continuing to hold may face greater losses; the take-profit can be executed in two stages: The first take-profit target is 'Sell Point 1 (248.36 USD)', this price level is 'the most recent high point', and there is selling pressure from previous trapped funds. Partial positions can be sold at this point to lock in profits; if the price strongly breaks through this level, continue to hold until 'Sell Point 2 (249.0 USD)', this price level is both 'the most recent resistance level' and a key pressure point for the short-term rebound. Upon reaching this point, significant reduction of positions or liquidation is recommended.
2. Bearish strategy: Rely on resistance levels for layout, beware of indicator reversals.
Short selling timing selection: Bearish strategies need to wait for price rebounds to near resistance levels and enter when there is a 'momentum insufficiency' signal — focus on 'Sell Point 2 (249.0 USD)' and 'the most recent resistance level (249.0 USD)'. If the price touches this range and trading volume continues to shrink, and the K-line shows bearish patterns like 'shooting star' or 'evening star', consider establishing short positions.
Stop-loss setting: The 'short selling stop-loss point (249.6 USD)' for the bearish strategy is the core risk control line — if the price breaks through this point, it indicates that the resistance level has failed, the previous bearish logic has been broken, and it may trigger more stop-loss orders to push the price further up. At this time, immediate stop-loss and exit should be executed to avoid further losses.
3. Risk warning: Regardless of whether choosing a bullish or bearish strategy, two points must be noted: First, the current issue of 'volume-price divergence' has not yet been resolved; any directional breakthrough requires 'increased trading volume' as confirmation. Breakthroughs without volume support are very likely to be 'false breakthroughs'; second, SOL's price fluctuations are greatly influenced by the overall market sentiment. If major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin experience significant fluctuations, SOL's trend may deviate from the technical analysis expectations, requiring timely strategy adjustments.
IV. Short-term trend outlook: A rebound is expected, but the height is limited. Pay attention to the volume and resistance level breakthroughs.
Considering the combined volume-price trend and technical indicators, SOL is likely to show a 'volatile rebound' in the short term, but the rebound height depends on the volume release situation: If the subsequent 4-hour K-line can achieve 'price increase and volume increase' and break through the 249.0 USD resistance level, then the rebound may continue to a higher range; if it maintains 'volume-price divergence', the rebound is likely to encounter resistance and fall back in the 248.36-249.0 USD range, or even retest the 212.0 USD support level.
For investors, the current stage is more suitable for 'small position trial and error' — whether relying on support levels to go long or relying on resistance levels to go short, positions should be controlled within 10%-15% of total funds to avoid judgment errors caused by conflicting indicator signals. At the same time, closely track whether the MACD histogram turns from negative to positive and whether the RSI exits the oversold range; these signals will be key to confirming the trend reversal.
Follow Crypto Old Dong to get more real-time Solana market tracking, technical indicator dynamic interpretation, and BOSS Wallet trading strategy updates, helping you accurately grasp buying and selling opportunities in the complex market of volume-price divergence and indicator resonance, strictly control risks, and steadily seize short-term opportunities in the crypto market.
