1. My “smart electrician uncle” has a bloody history of trading coins: from doubling to zero, just a greed away
My uncle is an ordinary electrician, not highly educated but very smart — the neighbors often say he “knows how to ponder,” always able to earn extra money with some unexpected little ideas, he is seen as “a somewhat capable smart person.” In 2021, he heard from my mom that I had been trading coins for many years and had amassed a nine-digit asset, and he immediately became excited: “This coin world looks like it can make money!”
That morning, I specifically told him: “You should observe first, if you really want to enter the market, be sure not to touch leveraged contracts, and definitely don’t buy unknown altcoins.” But after pondering for more than an hour, he rushed in with 20,000 RMB in the afternoon — throughout the process, he couldn't even understand the K-line chart, only holding onto one goal: “earn 100,000 for my son, and leave once I earn it.”
Who would have thought that this rush would lead to a "rollercoaster-like disaster":
Doubling in 2 weeks: he played contracts with 10 times leverage, quickly turning 20,000 into 40,000, and eagerly shared his "research insights" with me daily, even advising me, "You should also try contracts; it’s much faster than holding coins."
In a month and a half, a 7-fold increase: by April 2021, his assets soared to 140,000, with leverage increased to 50 times. Watching me slowly accumulate BTC and ETH, he began to think, "Your investment philosophy doesn’t work," even believing, "In a few months, my returns will surpass your years of accumulation."
In 3 months, a 12-fold increase: In May 2021, he not only held 50 times leverage but also invested in various "junk coins," with assets soaring to 250,000. At this point, he had completely inflated, thinking "I know more than you," and no longer discussed trading coins with me.
In 8 months, a profit retraction of 40%: In October 2021, he suddenly contacted me, sounding dispirited: "I lost a lot due to liquidation, small coins also plummeted, now I have less than 150,000 left." I advised him, "You have already achieved your target; just wait to buy BTC and ETH at the bottom in the bear market," he agreed verbally but cut off contact.
15 months to lose everything: In May 2022, when LUNA collapsed, he held only 60,000 and wanted to "take a gamble for a comeback," but was dragged down by LUNA's death spiral—in one day, his assets went to zero. After hitting zero, he said, "This time I will really dollar-cost average into ETH and wait to invest again in the bear market."
18 months and "couldn't help it": In August 2022, just after 3 months, he told me again, "Invested 20,000, bought a coin that doubled, now it's 40,000." This time I didn’t advise, just said, "Good luck, just be happy."
My uncle is not a fool—he can double his investment short-term in contracts, being more perceptive than many "crypto veterans." Yet even so, he could not escape the outcome of "contract doom." When a person gets into contracts, the gambler's mentality will wrap around them like vines: wanting to win more when they win, unwilling to lose when they lose, and eventually being forced step by step to a dead end.
In the cryptocurrency market, due to its volatility being much greater than that of stocks and funds, it attracts too many inexperienced individuals. However, most of them do not even understand "what blockchain is" and blindly rush in, losing money and collapsing mentally, sinking deeper until they can no longer bear it.
Second, I made 20 million with this "simple method": don’t touch contracts, don’t be greedy for quick profits, just stick to the rules.
In fact, trading cryptocurrencies does not need to be a "gamble"; I have earned over 20 million relying on a "simple method" with one core principle: refuse speculation and stick to the bottom line.
1. Focus on only two coins, avoid "lottery-style" traps.
Don't be confused by those flashy altcoins; stick to Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH)—these two are the "ballast stones" of the cryptocurrency circle, and despite their volatility, they have fundamentals to support them. As for small coins? Essentially, they are irregular lottery tickets; nine out of ten people lose money, and the one who makes money will eventually return it.
2. Shorting must be systematic: look at moving averages, stagger positions, and set strict stop-losses.
Look at the MA60 moving average in the 4-hour chart (the yellow line); if the price is consistently pressed by this line, it’s an opportunity to short.
Do not sell all at once; reduce positions in three parts: for example, when it rises to 2400, sell a portion first, then sell again when it rises further, keeping a buffer.
Stop-loss must be strict: if the price rushes to 2450 and then drops, directly set the stop-loss at 2455—losing this little money is better than getting liquidated, don’t hold on stubbornly.
3. Going long requires rhythm: find support, stagger positions, and avoid chasing high prices.
Look at the "previously immovable position" in the daily chart (which is the support level); for example, if 2300 is a historical support point, trade near this level.
Also buy in three parts: buy a portion first; if it drops again, add to the position to lower the cost.
Be clear on stop-loss: if it drops to 2280 and then rebounds, set a stop-loss at 2275; protecting your capital is the most important.
4. Managing money is key: don’t let greed ruin everything.
If daily losses reach 20%, stop trading, close the software, and look again the next day.
Don’t exceed 5% of total capital for each order; even if you lose, there is still room for recovery.
Do not operate after 2 AM (market fluctuations are chaotic and impulsive), try to rest on weekends, and don’t turn yourself into a "crypto gambler."
5. Don't be greedy during big rises: take profits and use stop-loss to protect gains.
Only pursue the three mainstream coins with the highest daily increases (limited to BTC, ETH, or top platform coins), and do not touch unfamiliar coins.
Follow a "3 wins for 1 loss" ratio: take 100 to risk, withdraw once you earn 300, and do not wait for a pullback.
Immediately move the stop-loss up after making money: for example, if you make 200, adjust the stop-loss to the position of "no loss of principal" to protect the gains.
6. Don’t panic during crashes: keep cash, wait for opportunities, and buy in batches.
Always keep 30% cash on hand; don’t go fully invested—during a crash, cash is your "bottom fishing ammunition."
Don’t rush at the first drop; wait for a drop exceeding 8% to take action to avoid buying in at the "halfway point."
Buy in three parts at intervals of 3% in price: for example, if it starts to fall from 2000 to 1840 (down 8%), buy 1/3 first, then buy another 1/3 at a further drop of 3% (1785), and finally buy the last 1/3 at another drop of 3% (1731).
7. There are signals to stop: don’t wait until "you've earned enough," wait until "you've reached your target."
If ETH earns 20 points and BTC earns 350 points, lock in part of the profit quickly; don’t wait for a pullback.
If you make a lot, use the 5-minute chart to protect your position: for example, if BTC has made 500 points, withdraw part of it every time it drops by 50 points to keep most of the gains.
If you earn 15% in a day, stop trading; don’t think, "I can earn a little more"—this market specializes in punishing various forms of "disobedience"; following the rules is the key to longevity.
Three, final words.
In the cryptocurrency circle, "quick money" is like poison wrapped in sugar: you think you can "get rich overnight" with contracts and small coins, but in reality, you are gambling your principal on the future. My uncle's experience is not unique; too many people come in with the mindset of "make a quick buck and leave," only to be dragged into the abyss due to greed and unwillingness.
Those who can truly make money in the cryptocurrency circle are never the "smartest people," but the "most disciplined people"—not touching contracts, not being greedy for small profits, just sticking to mainstream coins and discipline, taking it slow will lead to long-term success.
Last night, someone in the community asked, "Why do I keep losing the more I watch?" I replied, "You treat K-lines like an ECG, valuing positions more than your life—once the mindset collapses, trading must lose."
You will find that after being in the cryptocurrency circle for a long time:
Stakeholders: when prices fall, they close their computers and wait it out; when prices rise, they tremble with fear of corrections, being restrained by the market.
Cash holders: regretting missed opportunities, chasing high prices after a bull market, watching the bear market as a show, with both cognition and capital shrinking.
Only those who use "half position + stop-loss": can relax daily, and the account curve rises steadily.
This is the effect of the "gaming mentality": winning is not boasting, losing is not cursing, liquidation is not shifting blame, and profits are not inflating; focus on "how to play the next round" and don’t get tangled in "how to lose the last round."
Integrating the "gaming mentality" into the trading system only requires three steps:
Step one, never go all in. Putting all capital at stake turns you from a "player" into a "gambler," leaving only prayer and increasing the risk of panic-driven errors.
Step two, do not stay in cash for long. Without positions, market sensitivity drops to zero, missing opportunities in a bull market and losing rhythm in a bear market makes it difficult to accumulate experience and improve cognition.
Step three, adjust the position to the "slight pressure" zone. My method: if I wake up at night due to sudden news, the position is just right—too tired means light positions, hard to focus; insomnia means heavy positions, easily anxious. I usually keep 40%-60% positions, so both rises and falls are controllable and not disturbed by short-term market fluctuations.
Someone asked, "Is the gaming mentality to lay flat?" Wrong, it’s a full-on attack: focus on "how to win the next round" (optimizing strategies, finding stable entry points), not "how to recover from the last round" (being dragged by emotions and internal conflicts leading to losses).
Trading should be "gamified": treat fixed positions as "equipment," stop-losses as "revival coins," and reviewing trades as "strategies." When taken to the extreme, you will find: the market and coins remain unchanged, but you have evolved from "chives" to a "gold farming studio."
Finally, a piece of advice: don’t treat trading as a life-and-death gamble; treat it as a game ranking match; as your "trading rank" rises, your capital is just a trophy.
Having traded cryptocurrencies for over 10 years, I am still using a strategy: a 5-minute guide to mastering the "Elliott Wave Theory" worth keeping!
In the world of technical analysis, the "Elliott Wave Theory" is almost an unavoidable name.
It was proposed by American analyst Ralph Elliott in the 1930s, originally used to study the trends of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Elliott discovered that market prices are not entirely random but exhibit a recognizable and repeatable rhythm—this is the wave pattern.
The rhythm behind this is actually a reflection of collective emotions of investors—alternating optimism and pessimism driving price fluctuations.
Today, we will guide you into this classic theory in 5 minutes.
The core idea of wave theory.
Elliott believes that the market is the sum of human behavior, and price trends are a visible representation of changes in public psychology. In this theory, price movements are marked as analyzable and can be used as tools to predict future price changes, i.e., waves.
Prices do not simply rise or fall but consist of waves, each wave representing fluctuations in the emotions of market participants.
In a complete cycle, prices will form:
◎ 5 driving waves (in trend).
◎ 3 corrective waves (against the trend).
Combined, it is the "5+3" wave structure.
The core of Elliott Wave Theory is based on the view of stock price fluctuations: motivation (developing in the direction of potential trends) and correction (against potential trends). As shown in the illustration, five waves define the direction of the recent trend, followed by three corrective waves.
The structure of the driving wave (5 waves in the trend).
To fully understand the Elliott Wave Theory, the most important thing is to understand each psychological motivation and principle behind these waves, as the zigzag movement of prices represents the rise and fall of investors' optimistic and pessimistic emotions.
Taking the upward trend as an example:
Wave 1: Initial launch (motivation).
A small number of pioneers buy based on fundamentals or technicals and push prices up.
Wave 2: First retracement (correction).
Early bulls take profits, new shorts enter, and prices retrace but will not break below the starting point of Wave 1.
Wave 3: Main upward wave (impulse).
The longest and strongest wave, where more investors view Wave 2 as a buying opportunity, leading to a significant breakout above the high of Wave 1.
Wave 4: High-level correction (correction).
Bullish strength appears slightly fatigued, showing slight retracement, but the extent is limited.
Wave 5: Emotional peak (emotion).
The 5th wave is the last upward movement in the entire Elliott Wave sequence. Greed drives prices to new highs, but momentum is weaker than Wave 3, often accompanied by RSI divergence.
The structure of the corrective wave (against the trend ABC).
In wave theory, the end of Wave 5 signifies the completion of the wave sequence. At the end of Wave 5, we can expect a corrective structure to appear in the market, usually a 3-wave movement, labeled as Waves A, B, and C. We call this the corrective wave.
Corrective waves interrupt the main trend. These waves are meant to "deceive" traders into thinking that the previous trend still exists, while in reality, a trend change is forming.
After Wave 5 ends, the market enters a correction phase:
Wave A: Initial drop wave.
Most people still hold expectations of rising prices, viewing it as a small correction, while in reality, the trend is changing.
Wave B: Rebound wave.
Price rebounds, giving shorts a better entry opportunity.
Wave C: Confirm downward movement.
Breaking key support levels, the rebound is declared over, and the market enters a new trend.
The three iron laws of Elliott Wave Theory (non-negotiable).
Many analysts and traders who study Elliott Wave Theory find that learning all the rules and nuances of the theory is quite challenging and often give up before fully grasping its powerful predictive value. Although there are many subtleties in wave theory, the rules themselves are very simple and clear. In fact, there are only three unbreakable rules related to wave theory.
◎ Rule 1: The retracement of Wave 2 cannot exceed 100% of Wave 1.
◎ Rule 2: Wave 4 will not overlap with Wave 1.
◎ Rule 3: In Waves 1, 3, and 5, Wave 3 cannot be the shortest.
Once you have a good understanding of the above wave rules, you can start applying these rules in real trading. Common references for wave ratios (Fibonacci relations).
Although the rules are simple, the guidelines of Elliott Wave Theory are complex. The rules cannot be broken. If you find a violation of the rules, it means your understanding of the market is incorrect, and you need to find another wave that satisfies all the rules for counting.
Here is a brief list of some guidelines for Elliott Wave Theory:
Five driving waves:
◎ Wave 2 retracement is usually 38%~78% of Wave 1.
◎ The length of Wave 3 is often 1.618 or 2.618 times that of Wave 1.
◎ Wave 4's retracement is usually about 38% of Wave 3's length.
◎ The length of Wave 5 is often 38% or 61% of the distance from Wave 1 to Wave 3.
Corrective wave:
◎ Wave A is usually a sharp movement process, which can be subdivided into 5 waves or 3 waves.
◎ Wave B is usually a rather deep retracement and will retrace 50%, 61%, or 78% towards Wave A.
◎ Usually, the length of Wave C is equal to that of Wave A.
These ratios are important tools for judging whether waves are "healthy."
Practical tips.
Wave theory is a framework, not a formula. It needs to be used in conjunction with market context and other tools (such as trend lines and Fibonacci retracement).
Look more, draw more, and correct more. Counting waves is an experiential task; beginners can easily lose direction among different levels of waves.
Emotional recognition is crucial. Waves are essentially a cycle of emotions; understanding human nature allows better utilization of them.
Summary.
Elliott Wave Theory is a tool for analyzing market rhythm, revealing the deep relationship between price movement and investor psychology. Mastering it is not difficult; the challenge is to flexibly identify, patiently wait, and strictly adhere to the rules in real practice.
Remember, wave theory is not a magic wand for prediction; it is a key to understanding market structure.
"No one becomes rich without unexpected fortune, and no horse thrives without night grass"; many people rush into the cryptocurrency circle hoping to make quick money but end up losing due to a lack of understanding of the market and methods, ultimately "losing both the wife and the soldiers."
The deeper your understanding of the market and the stricter your execution of the rules, the more stable you can stand in bull and bear markets. Even if you are still losing at this moment, as long as the direction is correct, each step brings you closer to profitability.
1. "Stop-loss is not surrender, it’s leaving a way out for tomorrow's self."
Only after experiencing liquidation did I understand stop-loss: previously resisting stop-loss was due to unwillingness to accept the market's unpredictability, treating "hope" as the basis. Now I view stop-loss orders as a gym membership—painful to pay for, but a necessary investment for "long-term health" in trading, leaving room for a comeback tomorrow.
2. "K-line charts are mirrors reflecting your true self."
Being addicted to technical indicators can easily overlook self-analysis: K-line rises and falls are the "mirror," while rapid breathing, trembling fingertips, and the dilemma of cutting loss during a crash are the true tests of human nature. MACD and RSI are just tools; what needs taming is the inner fear of loss and hope for gains.
3. "Liquidity is a gift but can also be a noose."
Liquidity has both convenience and traps: some are addicted to high-frequency trading, "getting in and out in seconds," but like children unwrapping gifts, they find it hard to get real surprises. Platform risk management warns against "insatiable greed"; once entangled, liquidity can turn from convenience to a noose, devouring capital.
4. "True experts are all about 'subtraction.'"
When first entering the industry, one often thinks, "The more you see, the more opportunities you have." Choosing many cryptocurrencies and opening multiple software can lead to confusion and errors. After removing unrelated cryptocurrencies and closing redundant software, the market becomes clear. The "wolf-like traders" chasing 20 hotspots end up being the "herd" that is harvested by algorithms—experts know that trading requires "less but better."
5. "The most dangerous market hides in the clamor of 'this time is different.'"
When the market is euphoric, voices of "this time is different" and "guaranteed profits" are rampant, with some even mortgaging their properties to enter the market. At this time, one must be cautious: history does not repeat, but human nature is similar. Reviewing screenshots from the 2018 liquidation shows that while markets change, human greed and luck evolve slowly, and the "this time is different" market hides deadly risks.
The last truth: the most ironic thing about this industry is that when you stop being obsessed with "beating the market" and "predicting rises and falls," and learn to follow market rhythms and control desires with discipline, you truly gain trading freedom.
I am A Xin, only doing real trading, and the team still has spots available for you to join.
