The index was so weak on the first trading day of September, market confidence is severely lacking! Back in April, it was the annual report minefield + impact from the lockdowns in Shanghai, while in August the mid-year reports showed significant improvement, and the situation in Chengdu and Shanghai was just under strict control, not to the extent of a lockdown. In the short term, it’s still about strictly controlling positions and focusing on short-term trades; for long-term high-growth stocks, I also do not recommend heavily increasing positions if they are already under pressure; just hold them as part of your allocation, as long as the fundamentals do not worsen, keep them.
Market sentiment showed some improvement yesterday, but the profit-making effect is still quite poor, with a limited number of stocks hitting the daily limit, only 41. Additionally, the funds are quite scattered, lacking strong sectoral effects. The sectors that saw the largest gains are agriculture, real estate, coal, and home appliances, but the willingness of funds to participate is not very strong. Overall, it is still difficult to engage in the market; as sentiment begins to improve, one should still control positions and look for some small opportunities for arbitrage.
The phenomenon of continuous board sentiment has appeared, and after the black sesame board, the market has given a rich return to the funds that countered the market the day before yesterday. Yesterday, Wanhe Electric also countered, going from limit down in the morning to +5% at the close. Yuanfei Pets also opened the nuclear button at the end of the day after a drop in the morning. However, it is still recommended to be cautious about participating in continuous board stocks as many of them lack synergy; if the main controlling funds hit hard, they could be ruined.
In terms of themes, the food and beverage sector is still doing well, but it is also challenging to say that it will reverse and embark on a major trend. Currently, Hai Tian Soy Sauce, Yili Shares, and Kweichow Moutai have not started to trend upward yet, and the sector's overall trend is still absent. Right now, funds have nowhere to go; consumer stocks have fallen sharply and can be considered a defensive sector. Black sesame has gained popularity, so keep an eye on small consumer stocks. Qingdao Foods has been mentioned for several days now; the lurking funds must be considerable. If it can’t hold, it will definitely be a selling point. Those who just focused on it yesterday should lower their expectations today, retreating with a small profit or loss, and continue to pay attention to other varieties that haven’t risen much yet. The epidemic in Chengdu is severe, and Hongqi Chain’s limit-up on supply guarantee, while Shenzhen has also begun strict controls. Keep an eye on Tianhong Shares and Shenliang Holdings in the supermarket-prepared dish sector, both of which are at low levels.
Real estate is still a direction for steady growth and can be considered a defensive direction. The stocks that have risen are mainly small caps. The small caps mentioned earlier have all moved, with Shahe Shares hitting the limit, Yuehongyuan A hitting the limit and breaking, and Yangguang Shares being somewhat weak. Recently, I am focusing on the smallest circulating market value in the Shenzhen small and medium-sized board, Zhongtian Services, which just changed its name a few days ago to emphasize its property management service attributes. Its position is also low, so if the real estate sector is strong, I will continue to pay attention.
In the coal sector, many stocks have broken down, and yesterday there was a strong recovery. However, looking at the strong recovery pattern, it cannot return to the previous uptrend, and most targets may become sell points for reducing positions. The subsequent focus will be on oscillation. It was strong yesterday, but today it might adjust again, so let’s wait for a while before looking again. This coal direction is suitable for following trends that have emerged; short-term participation is not advisable.
In terms of chips and semiconductors, news stimulation is leading to bans, and there is a logic for domestic substitution. The GPU concept surged yesterday but retreated after reaching a high. Some small caps hit the limit, but large caps like Tongfu Microelectronics still have poor performance. Looking short-term, Yingfang Microelectronics is worth considering.
Yesterday was the first trading day of September, and there was no clear direction for bottom-fishing. I stubbornly focused on some new stocks, consumer stocks, and real estate, basically looking at sector strength for arbitrage expectations. Without signs of economic recovery, it is difficult to have a big market for consumer stocks. The track stocks have risen too much in the early stage, showing signs of peaking in the short term, making it hard to buy. Only a few strong varieties are showing strength, which makes it challenging. The current situation is that institutions are hesitant to increase positions in high-level track stocks while being pessimistic about low-level consumer stocks, leading to this situation where even with funds available, they don’t know what to buy, and naturally, the index is weak. We need to wait for a breakthrough theme to appear. What it will be can only be determined when it appears. Before that, it is better to play with small positions or take a break.
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