The altcoin season index has fallen from 78 on September 20 to 62.
Data on September 22 shows that the altcoin season index has fallen from 78 on September 20 to 62. This adjustment falls within the category of a healthy market correction and does not constitute a trend reversal signal. The index reflects market risk appetite by tracking the proportion of cryptocurrencies in the top 100 by market capitalization that perform better than Bitcoin. The current index level of 62 indicates that funds are still rotating between sectors and have not yet broken through the critical threshold of 50, showing that market risk appetite has not fundamentally waned.
Recent index fluctuations have shown a significant correlation with fund behavior. When the index peaked at 78 on September 20, market activity reached a temporary peak, but some profit-taking by investors led to an index correction. This fluctuation pattern aligns with the characteristic of fund rotation and fundamentally differs from the release of systemic risk. Taking the July market as an example, after starting from a low of 24, the index broke multiple key resistance levels within half a month, fully demonstrating the pulse-like advancement of fund rotation.
Comparing historical data reveals changes in the current market temperature. In December 2024, the index reached an annual high of 87, and then entered a multi-month adjustment period, with continued low-level fluctuations in the first half of 2025. It wasn't until July when the index broke past the 52 mark that the market risk appetite was confirmed to have officially returned, and September data continued this warming trend. Although the current index has retreated from its peak, it still maintains a significant increase compared to the lows of the first half of the year, confirming that market enthusiasm has not completely dissipated.
Future observations should closely monitor the effectiveness of support at the 62 level. If the index can stabilize at this level and regain upward momentum, it will provide strong validation for the sustainability of the current altcoin market; conversely, if it effectively falls below the 50 mark, it may signal a structural shift toward a bear market, necessitating caution against trend reversal risks. Additionally, changes in Bitcoin's market capitalization proportion, overall altcoin valuation levels, and other auxiliary indicators can also serve as important references for assessing the market stage.
