Joint SEC/CFTC roundtable on crypto (September 29) – Towards better regulatory clarity for crypto products.

Bitcoin forecast at $135,000 from Standard Chartered (September 30) – Institutional confidence in BTC's rise in the third quarter.

Crypto ban in Connecticut (October 1) – Regulatory divergence influencing crypto adoption in the United States.

Final decision on the Solana ETF (October 16) – Approval could boost SOL and the outlook for altcoin ETFs.

Final judgment on the Cardano ETF (October 22) – A key test for the legitimacy of altcoins in regulated markets.

Detailed analysis

1. Joint SEC/CFTC roundtable on crypto (September 29)

Context: The SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) and CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) will hold a joint roundtable to discuss the structure of the crypto market, derivatives, and decentralized finance (DeFi). This is the first coordinated initiative to harmonize rules for crypto assets in the United States.

Implications: Clearer rules could reduce uncertainty for institutional investors and encourage innovation. A positive outcome could accelerate ETF approvals and stabilize market sentiment.

(Bitget)

2. Bitcoin forecast of $135,000 from Standard Chartered (September 30)

Context: Standard Chartered confirms its price target of $135,000 for Bitcoin by the end of September, relying on inflows into ETFs ($12.4 billion in the second quarter) and adoption by corporate treasuries (56,000 BTC purchased by companies other than MicroStrategy in Q2).

Implications: This institutional validation strengthens short-term bullish momentum, especially if inflows into ETFs accelerate.

(The Block)

3. Crypto ban in Connecticut (October 1)

Context: Connecticut prohibits state agencies from holding or conducting transactions in crypto, in contrast to federal efforts to create a 'strategic reserve of Bitcoin'.

Implications: This increased regulatory fragmentation in the United States could hinder crypto businesses, which may turn to more favorable states like Texas or Wyoming.

4. Final decision on the Solana ETF (October 16)

Context: The SEC must rule on the spot Solana ETF applications filed by Bitwise and 21Shares. Analysts estimate a 95% probability of approval, thanks to better custody infrastructure and liquidity of CME futures.

Implications: An approval could trigger a rise in SOL, similar to the 78% increase of Bitcoin after the approval of its ETF, and pave the way for other altcoin ETFs.

5. Final judgment on the Cardano ETF (October 22)

Context: The SEC's final decision on Grayscale's Cardano ETF could recognize ADA as a commodity. An approval would allow institutional exposure to the Cardano ecosystem, particularly its privacy protocol Midnight.

Implications: A green light could boost the price of ADA (currently at $0.77) and validate academic blockchain models in regulated markets.

Short-term bullish catalysts (SEC/CFTC clarity, ETF approvals) must face regulatory headwinds (state-level bans). The decision on the Solana ETF on October 16 is the most determining event – watch the volumes of CME SOL futures and custody solutions as key indicators. If approved, it will be necessary to observe if SOL can maintain above the support at $185 to confirm sustainable momentum.