I have always had a question: why are occasional geniuses common, but evergreen trees rare?
I have experienced quite completely from the second half of 21 years to the second half of 25 years, a full four years of the market.
For every sector's rise, I have always favored the shining stars. They caught the strongest horses during that market period, bought the most suitable positions, and achieved results that many people would never obtain in their lifetime.
You must have heard countless stories. They seem to have some sort of cheat, speaking and acting as they wish.
I won't mention specific names, as it's not very polite.
While they are shining, they often selflessly share their entire journey, complete logical frameworks, and even more comprehensive battle strategies.
Some of them are still sharing; if you take a look, you will still find them impressive with high levels of understanding.
We call such people the children of the version.
But the other side of the story is that only a very small number of people can continue to shine in the next wave or the wave after that and become the children of the version again.
Years ago, I was also fortunate to receive attention and did quite well in a certain market phase. I am still the same person, still striving, yet the results are becoming scarcer.
So I often reflect on what went wrong; let's briefly sort it out this weekend.
1. Past achievements have become a constraint, and there is a fear of missing out.
Path dependency; the ones who make big money must have large positions, having bought a leading coin of a certain phase. So what will I do? Of course, replicate it and look for similar markers with the same logic. But it may be that this thing cannot be replicated at all, as every success has a certain element of luck.
Afraid of missing out, fearing that this feast of wealth will not include me, I will then brainwash myself, even only looking at evidence that is favorable to my own views, and comforting myself when the momentum reverses by saying that if I stick to it and increase my position now, my future achievements will be greater.
So have you lost money on a certain leading coin? Do you often bet on the leading coin incorrectly, then increase your position leading to larger losses?
2. The desire to confirm one's correctness leads to bias, which is essentially a form of self-protection. However, it ignores other changes in the market.
After buying a position, because this position has been carefully selected and repeatedly thought through (in fact, the thinking process has already gone off track), one is eager to prove oneself right, thus subjectively excluding other blooming logics in the market.
For example, the reason I completely missed the opportunity from avnt to aster is that I bought zora.
My logic is twofold:
1. The competition between exchanges and giants has already come on-chain, and everyone must strategically position themselves.
2. The creator economy is a tool for giants to capture high-quality traffic from web2; Anzi has a square, sol inherently brings traffic, and Coinbase must do well with zora.
Is there a problem with this? Actually, there is no problem. The market recognizes Logic 1, but Logic 2 deviates from the market's mainline. Currently, the competitive hot zone is not the community, but perp.
It's just a small difference, but the results can be vastly different.
But why did I choose the creator economy? Because I saw the rise of the pump and attributed it to live streaming.
I did not pay enough attention to the rise of avnt; the reason is that I simply did not want to look. I just wanted to prove that I am right, and I assumed everything else was just speculation.
Actually, I am also speculating, haha.
3. The psychological torment arising from unwillingness to settle for mediocrity.
The problem here is comparison; fearing that brothers suffer, even more afraid that brothers drive Range Rovers. This is particularly strange; people automatically define themselves as part of a certain circle, thus engaging in invisible comparisons and competition within that circle?
From the competition in the outfits of the mothers picking up kids at the kindergarten to the invisible arms race in every cultural circle.
I don't want to make a lot of money; I just want to prove that I am the strongest, or at least one of them.
I don't know if there are any trader brothers who have had such a mentality; it truly is a long-term torment of 7*24.
The force is mutual; with torment comes motivation, but the motivation brought by torment may deviate, may seek quick results, or may seek more.
Once there is a desire, one is getting further away from correctness.
There is no way to avoid it, and there is no positive feedback or identity recognition to be found elsewhere; in the end, one still binds oneself.
Becoming a child of the version is hard, and wanting to always be a child of the version is even harder. But is it possible that the thought of wanting to become a child of the version itself is an illusion?
Quoted from cryptosixman.
