The total amount of Bitcoin is 21 million pieces, of which about 19.91 million have been mined, and more than 1 million are waiting to be mined. It is estimated that the confirmed permanently lost Bitcoins exceed 3 million.

According to a report by BitGo, by 2025, approximately 2.3-4.0 million Bitcoins will be permanently lost, accounting for 11-18% of the total supply.

Ledger's estimates are similar, with 'lost' Bitcoins roughly between 2.3-3.7 million. Glassnode has indicators showing 'Hodled or Lost Bitcoins' (i.e., those not moved for a long time / possibly lost + coins held for a long time) are about 7.7 million BTC. Considering the above estimates and uncertainties, the most reasonable/conservative estimate is that approximately 2.3-4 million Bitcoins have been permanently lost.

If it includes long-term inactive addresses that 'may be lost,' then this number may be higher. The main reasons for loss are as follows: most are due to forgetting the key, not remembering that string of mnemonic words, or not saving it properly. Some people store it on hardware, and if the hardware is damaged or lost, it cannot be recovered. Another reason is unexpected death, where only the key holder knows the key and has not shared it with family.

The circulating Bitcoin minus those that are already lost may mean that the actual circulating Bitcoin amount is between 12-17 million.

In 2010, Satoshi Nakamoto answered a question about lost Bitcoin in the community. His exact words were: The lost coins will lead to a decrease in overall liquidity, increasing the value for other coin holders, which is tantamount to contributing to the community.

Bitcoin, as a decentralized asset, although it is a string of data, if the key or device is lost, it is essentially the same nature as losing physical gold.



Historical loss cases

James Howells, whose hard drive containing Bitcoin was lost in 2013, was recently reported to have given up searching, with a loss of 8000 coins, worth 900 million USD.

Stefan Thomas, whose key was stored in a password manager, resulting in 7002 Bitcoins being unrecoverable, worth 780 million USD.

Gerald Cotten, who unexpectedly passed away in 2018, was a broker who managed Bitcoin for clients without informing them of the key, leading to 190 million USD worth of Bitcoin being unrecoverable.

Mircea Popescu, who drowned in 2021, resulted in over 1 million Bitcoins being lost, worth 111 billion USD.

The total market value of Bitcoin is now 2.3 trillion USD. If we calculate a 20% loss, the actual circulating market value is 1.84 trillion USD, which is conservative. The actual number may be higher, for example, the Bitcoins held by Satoshi Nakamoto are likely permanently lost as well.

This is the data that has already been lost, and there may be more losses in the future.

Therefore, if you choose to hold coins, you must avoid the situations listed above.

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