According to Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse, Bitcoin (BTC), currently trading at $117,010, could be subject to a 70% drawdown in the next bear market. Cowen highlighted that in previous bear markets, Bitcoin has lost 94%, 87%, and 77%, which a drop, which even the recent buoyancy of the asset suggests is a reasonable probability.
Cowen, speaking in a recent panel, warned that investors should not succumb to complacency. On the contrary, the patterns of history suggest at the “very minimum, something like this caution Bitcoin holders to assume that another steep drop is a next gonna happen.”, Cowen is referring to a 70% drawdown from the foretasted peak of $250,000, which other analysts like Arthur Hayes from BitMEX, suggests Bitcoin could reach by the end of the year. In this case, Cowen’s projected figure is $75,000 in the next bear market.
Cowen has mentioned plans to profit from the potential rally in the fourth quarter. He plans to shift these profits from trading into Bitcoin to stablecoins. He also mentioned that he plans to re-enter the market in mid-2026.
Cowen also commented on Ethereum (ETH) - costing $4,539 - stating it would likely lag behind Bitcoin (BTC) only to surpass it later on during the market cycle. The ETH/BTC ratio is up 8.56% in the last 30 days which suggests Ethereum is gaining relative strength. Still, Cowen cautioned that ETH is susceptible to market weakness in October, thus urging caution.
Feelings are still mixed about Bitcoin's future. According to Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, 2026 is considered an ‘up year’ while Steven McClurg, the CEO of Canary Capital, predicts that Bitcoin will rise to 140-150 thousand and then decline over the next 5 years. Meanwhile, Bitcoin maximalist, Michael Saylor puts forth that the concerns about a downturn are all ‘doomer’ nonsense, firmly stating, the ‘“winter is not coming back.”’ Though Bitcoin's current market price is up 88% year on year, Cowen still believes that there is a risk of the cycle having a rapid top, suggesting that the increasingly common notion of having a cycle is coming to a close.
Cowen's market analyses of Bitcoin and Ethereum during tumultuous times reveal the ways in which proper planning and risk control are integral to the investment process in the current bear market. Altcoins are gaining more strength while Bitcoin's dominance is forecasted to decline suggesting a new cryptocurrency investment phase in which the next order of business will be predicted with a mix of past and future events.
