Spot 2.99 has approached 2 weeks volume-weighted POC (3.036), 14h-RSI 29.7 enters the technically oversold zone; if the bulls hold VAL 2.793, the price is expected to first rebound towards POC by 4.5%, and then challenge VAH 3.11. Strategy core: rely on LVN 2.91 to go long, set a stop loss below the recent HVN 2.98, risk-reward ratio 2.3, position ≤10%, if it falls below 2.79, immediately downgrade to wait and see.



Key interval structure and volume distribution
• Value anchoring: POC 3.036 (394M USDT), current price deviates by -1.4%, located in the lower half of the 70% transaction interval.
• Buffer/rebound: HVN① 2.981, HVN② 3.020, forming the first and second resistance above; HVN① overlaps with the current price, if it breaks through with volume in the short term, it is considered a preliminary strengthening.
• Rapid penetration: LVN 2.910 (46M USDT) is a 'low volume gap', often quickly filled by algorithmic orders, can be used as an aggressive long trigger point.
• 70% value area VAL 2.793–VAH 3.114, current price is at the 36% percentile, not in extreme undervaluation but close to the lower bound.

Momentum Verification and Dominant Direction
In the past 2 weeks, the HVN range Up/Down Volume was mostly around 45–55%, with no obvious dominance; however, around LVN 2.91, Up Volume accounted for 86%, indicating an increased willingness for short covering. 1h order book buy/sell ratio is 1.53, near-end order difference is +63,000 USDT, short-term bulls have a slight edge, but need confirmation from increased volume.

Auxiliary Judgment
• Bollinger band 1h lower bound 2.973, current price running along the band; RSI 29.7 below the 30 threshold, price and indicator are in sync with overselling, high consistency.
• MA200 1h 3.054, price deviation -1.9%, if it pulls back to around 3.05, need to beware of dynamic resistance.
• Contract OI 24h -0.82%, long-short ratio dropped from 3.29 to 2.58, shorts mainly reducing positions, downward momentum slows.

Order Book Anomalies
Distant sell wall 3.30 accumulates 3.2 million USDT, forming a short-term ceiling; lower buy wall 2.80 only 3.8 million USDT, depth is average, if it breaks below 2.97, it may trigger slippage to 2.91.

Market Cycle Analysis
The 2-week VPVR shows a 'range fluctuation' rather than a trend continuation, with a VAL–VAH range of 32%, suitable for swing trading. Spot positions can adopt a 'buy low at the lower end of the range + reduce at the upper end' cycle, and consider increasing positions if it breaks 3.11.

Trading Strategy (based on VPVR)
Aggressive: Buy small at the current price of 2.99, stop loss at 2.973 (Bollinger band lower bound -0.5×ATR), target 3.036 POC, RR 2.0.
Steady: Wait for a pullback to LVN 2.91±0.005 to enter, stop loss at 2.898 (HVN 2.98 opposite -0.5×ATR), target 3.020 HVN, RR 2.3.
Conservative: After breaking and stabilizing above HVN① 2.981, wait for a retest to go long, stop loss at 2.972, target VAH 3.114, RR 3.1.
Unified position ≤10%, event-driven or a significant drop below 2.79 means manual exit.

LP Market Making Suggestions
ATR 0.016, intraday volatility 1.1%, can place dual orders in the range of 2.91–3.02, price difference 0.4–0.6%, single order amount not exceeding 2% of the range's transaction volume (≈70,000 USDT), note that the distant sell wall at 3.30 may trigger a flash crash, reserve 20% of funds for transfer.

Risk and Failure Conditions
1) Hourly line breaks below VAL 2.793 with increased OI, shorts re-initiate, range logic fails;
2) Sudden regulatory or macroeconomic negative news, XRP's intraday volatility exceeds 2×ATR, suggest pausing additional purchases;
3) If RSI falls again but the price does not make a new low (bullish divergence), stop loss can be adjusted to the cost price for protection.

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