1. Timeline Review
August–September 2024: Entering the cryptocurrency market as planned;
November–December 2024: The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, triggering a surge in stocks and cryptocurrencies;
Mid-December 2024: Interest rate cut paused, market suffers;
First half of 2025: No new interest rate cuts until recently, when secondary cuts began;
September 2025: Account annualized about 20%, planning to withdraw in batches from September to October.
2. Market Logic
Market roots = liquidity, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are the core driving force;
Interest rate cuts bring a bull market, pauses douse the market's fire;
The bubble fades, 99% of junk coins go to zero, only valuable coins can emerge;
The current windfall has not yet reached junk coins; the market is entering a phase of elimination and differentiation.
3. Investment Gains and Losses
Gain: Followed the plan to enter the market, ultimately achieving around 20% annualized return.
Loss: Misjudged the timing; should have gradually exited last October, but greed and experience led to a withdrawal; some positions shifted from quality coins to worthless bubbles, resulting in profit loss.
4. Experience and Conclusions
Profits and losses originate from the same logic - liquidity and rhythm.
Algorithm > Emotion: Cannot rely on experience and emotions; must adhere to models and rules.
Better to earn less than to know when to stop: realizing profits is the true gain.
5. Future Outlook
We still believe that the 'copycat season' will come, but we must gradually exit in accordance with the rules in September-October this year, no longer clinging to the last gains.
The overall trend remains driven by liquidity, but the rhythm and difficulty have increased.
A shares and US stocks will diverge due to geopolitical and policy factors, and funds need to be allocated more cautiously.
6. Mindset and Action
An annualized return of 20% is already the best explanation of the risks.
This money can also be seen as a blessing for a friend's soon-to-be-born child, accumulating virtue.
The upcoming market will be left to others. We must stick to our discipline to have a future.