According to reports from Jinshi Data, the Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, in line with market expectations. This marks the resumption of interest rate cuts that had been paused since last December.
With the interest rate cut implemented, why isn't the market rising? The clearest analysis online! The real opportunity for the future is here (please read to the end)
1. Why didn't the interest rate cut lead to a surge?
This is a typical case of 'hawkish rate cut' + 'realization of expectations' double impact!
1. Expectations have long been priced in:
A 25 basis point rate cut is completely unsurprising; the market began to digest it three months ago. When good news is fully priced in, it becomes bad news, and some funds took the opportunity to realize profits.
2. The Federal Reserve's 'dovish on the surface, hawkish underneath':
Although interest rates are cut, the dot plot indicates only 2 rate cuts within the year (below the market's expectation of 3), Powell emphasizes that 'inflation is not completely resolved'! Policy signals are more cautious than expected.
3. What the market truly fears is - the risk of stagflation:
Weak economic data + sticky inflation, the Federal Reserve is in a dilemma. Interest rate cuts are 'passive defense' rather than 'active easing', and bull market expectations are suppressed.
2. What stage is the current market in?
Transition period: Early stage of policy shift, market confidence is fragile, and long-short battles are intense
Structural market: a broad rise is unlikely, but quality assets have begun to bottom out
Data-driven period: each CPI and non-farm payroll data could trigger severe volatility
Note: Do not expect a violent surge like in 2020; this time is a slow bull preparation phase!
3. Where are the real benefits for the future?
Interest rate cuts are just an appetizer; a big market requires these catalysts:
Core Focus:
Macroeconomic data reversal: CPI returns to below 3%, unemployment rate rises significantly
Regulatory breakthrough: The U.S. cryptocurrency bill has passed, and the ETF scope has expanded to include altcoins
Institutional actions: Global listed companies are increasing Bitcoin allocations, sovereign funds are entering
Technological Revolution: The next generation of blockchain applications is about to explode (DeFi, AI, RWA real-world implementation)
Strategy Recommendations:
1. Stay patient, gradually build core assets (BTC/ETH)
2. Focus on compliant tracks (RWA, custody, compliant DeFi)
3. Keep enough cash for black swan buying opportunities
4. Stay away from overvalued MEME coins, beware of liquidity traps
Conclusion:
The interest rate cut cycle has been confirmed, but a bull market needs time to exchange for space! The most important thing now is: to survive until the next bubble cycle