The Federal Reserve (Fed) makes decisions at all its meetings (about 8 a year), but the meetings in March, June, September, and December are considered "supercharged meetings" or "full press conference meetings" because they include two key elements that others do not always have
📅 MARCH, JUNE, SEPTEMBER, and DECEMBER
In each of these four meetings, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) publishes the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which includes:
1. Real GDP Projections: They discuss and publish their economic growth forecast.
2. Unemployment Projections: They discuss and publish their forecast for the unemployment rate.
3. Inflation Projections (PCE): They discuss and publish their inflation forecast, using almost exclusively the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) index, which is their preferred measure. The CPI (Consumer Price Index) is mentioned as a reference, but the official target of 2% is based on the PCE.
4. The "Dot Plot": They discuss and publish the famous dot chart with their expectations for the future trajectory of interest rates.
🤔 Is there any difference between the months?
Yes, the difference is not in which indicators are discussed, but in the emphasis and context of the time of year:
· March: It is the first major update of the year. The baseline expectations are established after having the economic data from the first quarter. The March "dot plot" is extremely important for understanding the trend the committee anticipates for the entire year.
· June: It is considered one of the most important meetings. By then, they already have data on almost the entire first semester and usually adjust their projections with greater certainty. The decisions made here strongly influence the expectations for the second half of the year. The press conference is very long and detailed.
· September: It serves as a final review before the last quarter. It is the last opportunity to adjust policy ahead of year-end and give signals about what might happen the following year. The September "dot plot" is crucial for anticipating movements for the next year.
· December: It is the meeting to set the outlook for the upcoming year. The projections published in December include the first official forecasts for the next year (for example, in December 2024, they will publish projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027). It is the most complete "roadmap."
📍In conclusion: What is discussed exactly in those months is the complete economic outlook and the expected trajectory of medium-term rates. The other 4-5 meetings of the year are more "operational," to adjust policy according to emerging economic data, but without the strategic depth of the four that include the SEP and the "dot plot."
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