Interest rate cut by 25 basis points, in line with expectations, starting to rise...

In a while, five endings of the script are ready👇

1️⃣ Decrease 0.25% + Dovish speech (Probability 67%)
BTC/ETH rises 3-8%, altcoins generally rise 10%+
Liquidity expectations increase, risk assets take off, similar to the 2024 rate cut scenario

2️⃣ Decrease 0.25% + Neutral to Hawkish (Probability 19%)
Mainstream coins fluctuate ±5%, altcoins become more volatile
Good news is offset by hawkish tone, market enters a wait-and-see mode

3️⃣ Decrease 0.25% + Clearly Hawkish (Probability 10%)
BTC/ETH drops 5-10%, altcoins drop even more
Hawkish signals trigger risk aversion, beware of a repeat of the 2022-style sell-off

4️⃣ Decrease 0.5% + Slightly Dovish (Probability 4%)
Mainstream coins soar 8-15%, altcoins spike 20%+
Exceeding expectations for easing ignites the market, bulls return to the script

5️⃣ Interest rate unchanged + Slightly Dovish (Probability <1%)
Mainstream coins drop 3-8%, altcoins fare worse
No change in interest rates disappoints, dovish language barely supports the market

In fact, when asleep, nothing happens...#美联储降息预期升温