Recently, while monitoring the market, I have come up with a practical judgment system by combining interest rate cut expectations and the signals from mainstream coins—not purely based on guessing, but rather summarizing the details of K-lines and news, to discuss the upcoming market rhythm and operational opportunities with everyone:
1. Let’s first talk about the big background: the 'counter-trend' market around the interest rate cut node.
1. A big rise before the interest rate cut ≠ steady rise; it is highly likely to drop and wash out.
According to the patterns of past Federal Reserve policy nodes, as long as there is a wave of impulse rises before the interest rate cut, it is almost always followed by a significant drop and washout—essentially, the main force washes out the short-term retail investors chasing the rise and concentrates the chips in the hands of long-term funds; otherwise, the pressure to push up later is too great.
2. On the day of the interest rate cut: beware of 'upward pin false breakouts'.
I judge that on the day the interest rate cut is implemented, the market is likely to play the 'bullish trap' game: it seems to be breaking through the previous high point, but in reality, it is a false breakout, ultimately forming a double top pattern, followed by a decline. In previous instances where interest rates were cut after hikes in 2023, such 'landing kills' have occurred, so set your stop-loss levels in advance to avoid getting caught in a pin.
3. Before the actual peak, the daily line will first 'accelerate for a wave'.
Remember a key signal: the top doesn't just drop down directly; there will definitely be a wave of 'accelerated rise' on the daily level first—this is the last move by the main force to attract buyers. Only after this wave of acceleration will the peak be officially reached. Many people fall into the inertia of 'thinking it can still rise'; in fact, the acceleration is 'the last carnival'.
4. 'Counter-trend opening orders' at the end of the trend are the most torturous.
For example, if we are at the end of a bullish phase now, it seems like a pullback is coming, yet it continues to rise in the short term; shorting at this time can easily lead to stop-losses. The same goes for the end of a bearish phase. It’s not that the strategy is wrong; it’s that the main force is intentionally shaking the market mindset in the final stage. If you withstand the fluctuations and maintain your stop-loss, you may be able to profit.
2. Specific judgment on mainstream coins: opportunities and support for BTC, ETH, SOL, DOGE.
1. BTC: 1134 is the 'bullish lifeline'.
Currently, as long as BTC does not fall below the key support level of 1134, the bullish trend remains relatively healthy—this point is the lower edge of the recent fluctuation range. Only if it breaks does it indicate a shift in short-term sentiment; there’s no need to panic before that. For those holding long positions, set the stop-loss 5-10 points below 1134 to avoid being stopped out by a small pin.
2. ETH: Daily rounded bottom + message buffer, higher probability of rising.
- In terms of patterns: ETH daily chart has already formed a 'rounded bottom'; this pattern itself is a bullish signal. As long as it breaks through the rounded top with increased volume, the upward space will open up; it may grind before the volume increases, but the chance of a decline is less than that of a rise.
- Message: The ETH ETF pledge time has been postponed to November 13. This 'postponement' instead provides a buffer period for the market—according to past experience, before key messages land, funds often speculate based on expectations, and there is a high probability of another rally.
- Today's operation: When ETH approaches 4365 and 4321, these two bottom levels, you can take a small long position, set the stop-loss below 4321, and avoid heavy positions since we are still in the grinding phase.
3. SOL: Recently the 'strongest', pullbacks are opportunities.
Recently, SOL's performance has indeed been 'strong'—compared to ETH's grinding, SOL's pullback and rebound speed are both stronger. If a pin occurs in the evening, the points 218.2 and 215.1 are good long opportunities, as these two points are the pullback support from the recent rise; entering on a pin is less risky than chasing the rise.
4. DOGE: Futures launch + ETF expectations, short-term boost.
DOGE has also started to gain momentum recently, especially today with the futures launch, coupled with the market's increasing expectation for DOGE's spot ETF—based on current capital flow and community sentiment, the probability of DOGE's spot ETF passing is very high, which is a clear positive for the short-term trend. The spot can be held with small positions, but caution is needed for chasing high risks in futures.
In summary, the current market core is 'grasp support, avoid false bullishness': be wary of the washout and false breakouts around the interest rate cut node. Mainstream coins should focus on key support levels; don’t be swayed by short-term fluctuations. Especially for ETH and SOL, if you seize the pullback opportunities, you can earn a decent profit in the short term.
