Bitcoin this morning once again performed a familiar "dance". The opening price was around 112,300 USD, at one point bouncing close to 112,900 but then rolling down to as low as 110,800. At first glance, there seems to be nothing new, but for traders, every shake like this is no different from a horror film mixed with comedy: the heart races but you still laugh because it’s so familiar. Glassnode even hinted: if BTC maintains 112,000, it could climb to 114,000, but if it slips, the fall will be faster than Elon Musk typing a tweet.
Looking at the weekly frame, the story becomes even more intriguing. In just August, BTC had a 'nose dive' from 114,000 down to 107,200, then climbed back up to 112,100 at the beginning of September. A performance reminiscent of a wire circus, anyone with a weak heart would just run off the floor. Nevertheless, analysts are discovering that BTC is becoming increasingly... mature: volatility has decreased by 20% compared to the previous cycle. Like a 'bad boy' who has stopped being impulsive, now becoming a mature gentleman, ready to attract capital from large funds. If it maintains the 112K range, BTC is likely to test its strength at 116K, and even reach 120K in Q4.
But BTC is not performing alone. The global stage is currently more chaotic than a bustling market. In Europe, the political scene in France is once again shaken as Prime Minister François Bayrou was ousted by the National Assembly after failing a budget confidence vote. President Macron hurriedly appointed Sébastien Lecornu as his replacement, while outside, the 'Block Everything' movement is still protesting loudly. Jokingly, the situation in France now is even more dramatic than the BTC candlestick chart.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the hemisphere, the U.S. is tightening its grip around Venezuela. The Navy and F-35 fighter jets have appeared in the Caribbean, a military campaign has erupted leaving 11 smuggling suspects dead. Mr. Maduro responded by deploying 25,000 border troops, while the militia promised millions. To reassure the spirit, the President of Venezuela even postponed Christmas celebrations to October 1st — it sounds like a joke but it is the truth. Russia and China immediately opposed the U.S., accusing it of blatant interference. The atmosphere in this region is heating up as much as the futures market.
The tension has not stopped. In the Middle East, Israel is expelling Palestinian people from Gaza, conducting an airstrike in Qatar targeting Hamas leaders, causing Russia to react angrily, calling this a serious violation of international law. Oil prices immediately increased, as a natural reflex whenever this region experiences turmoil.
Amid such a chaotic political world, Bitcoin still calmly plays the role of the 'unpredictable old man'. The price fluctuates around 112K, but its position is becoming increasingly strong thanks to the emergence of 'big players'. The U.S. government has even signed a decree to establish a national strategic Bitcoin reserve, accumulating over 198,000 BTC, making the U.S. the country with the most Bitcoin holdings in the world. At the same time, a series of companies followed MicroStrategy by adding BTC to their treasury, transforming it from a 'speculative coin' into an essential form of digital gold in the balance sheet.
In summary, if we look at the smaller frame, BTC is just hesitating around 112K, sunny in the morning and rainy in the afternoon as usual. In the weekly frame, it has just escaped the drop in August and is attempting a recovery. In the monthly and quarterly frames, BTC has become more mature, less volatile, with the potential to break out if it maintains support. And if we zoom out to the big picture, amid a tumultuous political and economic world, with France changing prime ministers, the U.S. surrounding Venezuela, Israel conducting airstrikes, and Russia opposing... Bitcoin shines even brighter like a leading actor, quietly yet powerfully on the global stage.
