At the beginning of 2023, the account balance was 1000 USDT.

On December 13, 2023, the account balance was 134500 USDT, taking the first step towards life's ideals.

Return rate: 100 times.

This article imitates the writing style of Lord Tai.

Trading experience so far: two and a half years (an intern), started researching in the second semester of junior year, graduated to full-time. Writing a reflection, hoping it can help friends who are just starting to get in touch with cryptocurrency contracts.

Trading involves risks; enter the market with caution!

Table of contents:
1. Contracts are not gambling; they are predictable.
2. How my trading system was established.
3. Low leverage compound interest.
4. If you are sure you can make money, you can only recharge your account once.

1. Contracts are not gambling.

Why did I choose Bitcoin among futures, foreign exchange, stocks, and the coin market in China? Because I believe Bitcoin is more transparent, all data will be published and is clear at a glance.

Having this data allows for better judgement of bullish and bearish strength compared to other markets (this is the case for me).

Gambling is different; you are betting with a hundred percent uncertainty. Compared to such contract trading, it is fundamentally a different thing. As for those who shout "contract trading is gambling" every day, they should belong to those who bet on rises and falls without thinking, relying on 'feelings.' For people like them, it is naturally gambling.

2. How my trading system was established.

Trading spanned half of my college years; my college major is Data Science and Big Data Technology, and I attended a regular university, Anhui Agricultural University. Coming from this province, if you ask a passerby, they would instinctively think this is some local subpar university. I saw no glimmer of hope for the future. In my junior year, I prepared two paths for myself: first, be a professional trader; second, give up becoming a data analyst (coder) and go into sales.


I began to review my trading career from the beginning to now:

The reason that led me into the circle: In June 2021, the babydoge coin was issued, and a high school classmate posted a screenshot in the moments, my first ten million. Below is the screenshot at that time.

This software is called tp wallet, and most people might not have used it. At the age when everyone was supposed to be slacking off in college, he made it to a small target of 0.1. Jealous, I rushed in and invested all the 30,000 yuan I earned after entering college. At that time, babydoge had not yet been listed (listing means being able to trade on major exchanges in the current market, flowing into the secondary market, which generally has more exaggerated price increases after listing). Plus, the myth of shib multiplying by ten thousand had just ended, so I invested all my 30,000 yuan, peaking at 500,000, and finally exiting at 100,000. Now thinking back, I feel scared. I believe many people entered the market for their first profitable trade in the same way, more or less, hearing about a certain coin and then buying in. At that time, I withdrew everything and converted it to cash, specifically withdrawing 90,000, then leaving 10,000 in okex to leverage a BTC buy and get a lottery ticket, also as a thank you to the goddess of luck in the coin circle. (Of course, I didn’t win and lost 10,000).

After truly starting derivatives trading, I was in a state of continuous losses, having tried various indicators, none effective. I thought it was human nature, feeling all the time that it was because I couldn't hold the main position or wanted to fight back, causing losses, but it wasn't. Looking back now, this is actually a spiral of death, a state most traders find themselves in.

Start gradually building my trading system:

First, I determined a direction: only trade trends in the future, abandon technical indicators (those reading this must have questions, why? Because in my trading career, only the first money was truly earned, and it was the good results brought by trends. All technical indicators are lagging, without exception.)

I reviewed the process of how I made money with babydoge, three key points: (Why only review the first time I made money? Because most traders make their first money in this way, and the success rate is very high, plus making a profit based on the principal is significant.)

1. Sufficient capital, traders are enthusiastic.

2. Constantly break through the current chip structure; each large influx of funds brings about an increase.

3. Buy after an outbreak, sell after a large pullback and a lot of funds fleeing, withstand the pullback from the peak.

After confirming three key points, I started to choose targets. Between altcoins and Bitcoin, I chose Bitcoin, let me explain why:

Whether in the stock market or futures contracts, this market cannot have a situation where one big player calls all the shots. Altcoins have small volumes and are easily controllable, with a big player usually calling the shots among them. The popularity of BTC is very high worldwide, where the market forces of bulls and bears often engage in a tug-of-war. There is no situation of monopoly; there must be confrontation for us to seize opportunities. It is a simple principle. So I chose BTC.

This also initially constructed a rough trading model.

Now I add three key points: first, break through the chip structure; second, the lower capital amount is sufficient (proportional to the direction of the K-line); and third, being in a frenzy phase in the short term, the result of increasing positions is upward. This transaction is BTC's recent trades, and the position can be considered a data indicator, with inherent lagging, so I choose those with relatively strong momentum, which has continuity.

This is a recent trade I executed, I closed some positions at 40,000.

Before confirming the trading system, I did not enter real trading, starting a large amount of data testing and backtesting. My college major just happened to correspond (Data Science and Big Data Technology), so I saved a lot of time. Through continuous adjustments of thresholds to determine buy and sell points, I finally established mechanical buy and sell points (it sounds simple, but I spent half a year on this, the last half of my senior year, while others were looking for jobs or internships, I was in the dormitory all day staring at the computer, like a cryptocurrency killer. The counselor specifically came to the dormitory to persuade me to find a job quickly. During this period, I endured a lot of pressure and continuous self-doubt).

The backtesting data I obtained at that time was like this.

From February 1, 2021, to February 1, 2023, with a principal of 1 yuan, it multiplied by 25,000.

Position management is like this: the initial margin for opening a position is 70% (for a total position of 10 yuan, 7 yuan is used), and if there is a profit afterwards, a new total position of 70% is used. If there is a loss, the amount of the last opened position is maintained. The benefit of this kind of position management can withstand a maximum drawdown of 30% and continue compounding. If it exceeds this drawdown, the position amount will be recalculated.

From the backtesting curve, it can also be seen that it conforms to the correct approach of the trend strategy. After long periods of oscillation, what is gained is a huge trend profit that can cover many previous losses. The win rate is 30%.

All data at the moment of opening a position is real-time; there are no future functions in the strategy function (meaning all referenced data existed before that opening).

If I were only to conduct such backtesting, I would be quite apprehensive because I don't know whether it can effectively continue in the days to come or whether it might become invalid one day. Later, I discovered that this path had already been successfully navigated since 2021 and has continued very well to this day.

A certain big shot's public trading in coin.

The real confidence that led me to decide to trade according to this strategy came from my family. That night, I had a long phone call with my dad; I can't remember how many hours it was. One sentence left a deep impression on me: "Dad has no education, has worked as a cement worker all his life, has been mediocre all his life. My biggest regret in this life is not having ventured out when I was young, even if just starting a business or setting up a stall. Supporting you through college is also my hope that you can see more things and meet more people. Dad doesn't want you to regret not accomplishing anything when you are old. What you do, Dad doesn't understand, but if you think it's worth a shot, and losing only means losing tens of thousands of yuan, then go for it. If you lose, you can come home and slowly find a job. Don't be disheartened; your parents aren't old yet and can still work."

I am no longer anxious. From that moment on, I truly made up my mind: I can only succeed, not fail.

3. Low multiple compounding.

In my understanding, 7 times is the highest multiple. This way, in my system, no matter how large the drawdown, there is still enough principal to turn it around.


4. If you are sure you can make money, you can only recharge your account once.

A piece of advice for traders: if you believe you can make money, you can only recharge your account once. This amount will be the starting point of your trading career; thereafter, only withdrawals are allowed, no recharges. This is to avoid the continuation of gambling behavior and to be responsible to your family and friends. Before you have confirmed earning ability, the simulation account is your forever home: a two-month limit, more than 40 trades; only when you are profitable at the end can you demonstrate preliminary profit capability. Everything before that is your period of confusion. I spent one year and two months in this confusion period. I hope all traders can have a clear self-awareness.


The above content does not constitute investment advice.

The end of the text, please indicate the author when reprinting.

And private message me, by the way, see if the consultation can be used, if it can't be used, please leave a message to tell me.


Recently, An An also has an invitation letter; it's the first time receiving it.