Professor, you’re spot on: the aggregate crypto cap is not pricing in a guaranteed cut.
Today we sit at ≈ $3.9 T (CoinGecko live quote is $4.0 T, CMC $3.86 T), still ~$200 B short of the $4.1 T high printed in late July when Fed dovish hopes first exploded .

That gap is the market’s option premium:

98 % of futures players bet on 25 bp,

but risk assets themselves refuse to fully commit until they see the dot plot and the tone.

So if Powell merely delivers the base case 25 bp and sounds balanced, crypto can still gap up into the void. If he goes 50 bp or sounds panicky, that missing $200 B never shows up and we probably re-price lower, not higher.

Bottom line: the cut is priced in Fed Funds space, not in crypto space, which is exactly why the post FOMC move (in either direction) can be so violent.