Tonight's crypto warning! U.S. employment data revisions are coming, what will be the impact?

Tonight, the U.S. will release the "annual revision" of non-farm employment data—specifically, the official adjustments based on more accurate unemployment insurance records, revising the employment data from the past 12 months. This adjustment is directly related to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which in turn influences the direction of the crypto market.

The market generally expects this revision to be downward (potentially undercounting hundreds of thousands of jobs), indicating that previous U.S. employment growth has been overestimated, and the actual economic performance is weaker.

Two possible outcomes and their effects on the crypto market

1. If the data is revised downward (high probability)

◦ Signals of U.S. economic weakness will increase, raising the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates.

◦ The U.S. dollar may weaken, and Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies could benefit.

2. If the data is revised upward (low probability)

◦ Economic resilience exceeds expectations, and the Federal Reserve may maintain high interest rates.

◦ The U.S. dollar strengthens, and cryptocurrencies may come under pressure.

Advice for crypto users

Risk management: Avoid heavy positions before the data release to prevent extreme volatility from triggering liquidation.

Strategic positioning: If the data causes a panic sell-off in the market, seize the opportunity to enter at lower levels.

Beware of short-term volatility: After the data is released, the market is likely to rebound (unless the data is significantly worse than expected), as the current downward revision has already been factored in.