Previously, ETH completed a rebound at the bottom of the descending triangle, successfully holding the critical support zone of 4320-4325 USD, and market sentiment has gradually improved. Currently, after breaking the short-term pressure, the resistance zone of 4450-4500 USD has become the main target for the bulls, and the strength of the breakout in this area will directly determine whether ETH can open up a new round of upward space.
Technical aspect: triangle breakout confirmation, short-term moving averages become key battlegrounds
From the 4-hour chart, ETH has been trapped in a continuous two-week descending triangle since late August — the upper resistance line has slowly moved down over time, while the lower support line remains relatively flat. During this period, bulls have defended the 4200-4250 USD range three times, effectively curbing the downward trend.
On September 9, ETH broke through the downward trend line near 4340 USD, preliminary bullish signals were released. As of the time of writing, the 20-day moving average (4345 USD) resonated with the spot price, becoming short-term support; the 50-day moving average (4366 USD) formed immediate resistance. Technical analysts pointed out that if ETH can stabilize above the 50-day moving average, the next strong resistance will point to 4500 USD (previously dense trading area), and if broken, it may quickly test 4956 USD (near this year's second-quarter high).
Momentum indicators are strengthening simultaneously: RSI rebounded from below 40 at the beginning of September to 55, showing that buying power is recovering but has not yet entered the overbought range (usually above 70 is considered overbought), still has room for upward movement; in the MACD indicator, the fast line crosses above the slow line from below, forming a 'golden cross' prototype, indicating that the trend may change.
Funding situation: whale staking + funds returning to exchanges, giving bulls more confidence
On-chain data shows that from September 8 to 9, the 'whale' accounts with balances exceeding 100,000 ETH accumulated a purchase of 86.8 million USD in ETH, all of which were transferred into Ethereum staking contracts (current staking APY is about 4.2%). From the characteristics of the addresses, some funds come from top institutional wallets, and this action is interpreted as a signal of 'long-term optimism for the Ethereum ecosystem's revenue capacity' — As of September 10, the total amount of Ethereum staked has reached 24.9 million ETH, accounting for 21% of the total circulation, an increase of 1.2% from the beginning of the month, further enhancing the stability of the staking ecosystem.
The funds flowing into exchanges are also showing positive changes. Coinglass data shows that on September 9, ETH had a net inflow of 5.87 million USD, ending eight consecutive days of net outflows since August 25 (during which the largest single-day outflow reached 120 million USD). Although the scale of 5.87 million USD is not large, combined with on-chain data, it can be seen that some funds come from retail investors depositing into exchanges and then buying, coupled with whales reducing selling pressure through 'withdrawal staking', the selling power in the short term has significantly weakened. Analysts pointed out that if the daily net inflow can stabilize above 20 million USD within the next three days, it will further strengthen the bulls' confidence.
Market environment: Bitcoin stable + interest rate cut expectations, risk appetite rising
The rebound of ETH is not an isolated event but benefits from the overall improvement in the market environment. As of September 10, Bitcoin (BTC) prices stabilized above 30800 USD, rising 3.5% from the beginning of the month, serving as a 'market anchor', its stabilization provides a foundation for the rebound of altcoins.
On a macro level, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut on September 20 are rising — the CME FedWatch tool shows that the current market bets on a 25 basis point rate cut has reached 68%, higher than the 52% a week ago. With the expectation of a rate cut, the valuation center of risk assets is moving up, and cryptocurrencies as high-risk assets are also favored by funds.
It is worth noting that ETH's recent breakthrough aligns with historical cyclical characteristics. A review of the trends in 2021 and 2022 shows that when ETH experiences 2-3 weeks of narrow fluctuations (volatility below 15%), it often leads to directional movements of 10%-15%. Currently, ETH's volatility has dropped to 12% over the past two weeks, consistent with the cyclical pattern of 'breakthrough after consolidation'.
The critical point and outlook between bulls and bears
In the short term, the core competitive range for ETH is clear:
The bulls need to maintain support at 4320-4325 USD (the 20-day moving average and previous consolidation level resonance) and break through resistance at 4450-4500 USD (the 50-day moving average and integer level overlap); if successful, the next target will point to 4700 USD (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level) and 4956 USD (the high point in the second quarter of this year).
If the bears counterattack, they need to break below the key support at 4200 USD (the bottom tested multiple times in the past 3 weeks); at that time, the 200-day moving average (4259 USD) may become a buffer, but once it is lost, it could further dip to 4050 USD (the low in August) and 3900 USD (Fibonacci 50% retracement level).
Considering the technical, funding, and market environment, ETH is biased towards upward consolidation in the short term. As long as the price remains above 4200 USD, the bullish pattern will not be disrupted; if it can decisively break through 4500 USD, it will confirm a new round of upward trend; conversely, it may fall into range consolidation. Investors need to pay close attention to the changes in trading volume near 4500 USD — a breakout with increased volume often indicates a continuation of the trend, while decreased volume may warrant caution against false breakout risks.
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