"Data can be falsified, but market sentiment won't lie!"

Tonight at 10 PM, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the preliminary value for the 2025 non-farm employment benchmark changes. The market expects that the employment data for the past year (2024.4-2025.3) will be significantly revised down, with a median of 800,000 people, and extreme predictions exceeding 1,250,000. The 'false prosperity' of U.S. employment may be shattered.

Why does this data have a nuclear-level impact? Because the monthly non-farm data is based on a sample survey, and this time it is calibrated using unemployment insurance contribution records covering 95% of positions, equivalent to doing a CT scan of the employment market, accurately identifying over-reported jobs.

What impact will the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have? Originally, the market expected a 25 basis point cut in September (probability 92%). If the data is significantly revised downwards and the recession alarm is sounded, the probability of a 50 basis point cut may soar, which could also trigger a global asset repricing: the dollar falls, gold rises, U.S. tech stocks under pressure, and BTC may break 115000.

Do shorts have a chance? If the downward revision is lower than expected, shorts may counterattack causing BTC to correct in the short term, but mainstream institutions have already bet on a significant downward revision. Shorts may face a buying opportunity from bulls.

What are the key levels and indicators for BTC? 112000 is the decisive point for bulls and bears: if it holds, it may rise to 115000-116000 due to dovish signals; if it breaks, shorts will have the advantage in the short term, but 110000 (Bollinger lower band + trend line resonance) is strong support, considered a 'golden buying opportunity'.

In terms of indicators, RSI (57.44) is in a neutral zone with three lines converging, indicating an explosion of bull and bear energy. MACD is biased towards bulls in the medium to long term, and tonight's data could be a catalyst.

Xing Ge's summary: Tonight's non-farm payroll is the ultimate judgment for bulls and bears. A significant downward revision of data will break the narrative of a soft landing for the U.S. economy and rewrite the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path. BTC may skyrocket against shorts!

If you are still too confused, you can follow me. I usually analyze some cutting-edge information and working strategies. Feel free to come and discuss at any time to seize big opportunities together!@神级猎手星哥

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