Trade Setup (4-hour chart period):
Entry (Long): Price breaks through $217.00 and the closing prices of 2 consecutive 4-hour candlesticks stabilize at this position, accompanied by trading volume increasing by more than 30% compared to the average of the last 5 periods, considered a valid entry signal.
Target (TP):
$225.00 (Upper bound of the previous consolidation range, corresponding to the resistance level of the recent 10-day high)
$235.00 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level, combined with the upward trend target of the 20-day moving average)
$250.00 (Upper bound of this year's second quarter consolidation platform, corresponding to the expected resistance level of re-entering the top 5 market capitalization)
Stop Loss (SL): When the price falls below 209.00 and the 4-hour closing price is below this level, the stop loss is triggered. This position is at the lower edge of the fluctuation range in the past 3 weeks and also resonates with the 99-day moving average (currently at 208.70), likely confirming the end of the short-term bullish trend after a break.
Market Outlook:
In the last 5 trading days, SOL has shown a 'stair-step upward' characteristic, with prices consistently running within the 'bullish arrangement zone' formed by the 7-day (212.30), 25-day (205.60), and 99-day (208.70) exponential moving averages. Short-term moving averages continue to cross above long-term moving averages, forming a three-time golden cross structure, with clear bullish signals from a technical perspective.
From the funding perspective, the funding rate for the SOL/USDT perpetual contract has risen to 0.032% (annualized 11.68%) in the last 24 hours, indicating that the cost of long positions is increasing but there is still incremental capital entering the market; on-chain data shows that the net outflow of SOL from exchanges reached 12,300,000 tokens, a 45% increase from last week, suggesting an increase in concentration of chips and a weakening of selling pressure.
It should be noted that if the market (BTC) fails to stabilize, it may trigger a short-term pullback in SOL. It is recommended to enter in 3 batches (30% on breakout, 40% after stabilization, 30% on pullback confirmation) to balance risk exposure. The current market optimism regarding the rebound in the locked value of DeFi protocols within the SOL ecosystem (12% growth in the last 7 days) and the competitive landscape of Ethereum Layer 2 forms the basis for mid-term upward logic support.
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