The market is anxiously waiting for the important employment report from the US tonight.
At 9 PM tonight, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will announce the adjusted employment figures reported from March 2024 to March 2025.
Current estimates forecast a reduction of between 450,000 and 950,000 jobs from previous reports.
Last year, this report indicated that the US lost -818,000 jobs during the 2023-2024 period. This means that instead of adding 246,000 jobs per month as previously announced, the actual number was only about 178,000.
This shock prompted the Fed to aggressively cut interest rates by 0.5% (instead of just 0.25%) in September 2024.
If this year's scenario repeats, it is possible that the Fed will have to cut rates more decisively next week. At the same time, it also raises concerns that the US economy is slipping into stagflation - rising unemployment while inflation remains high.
CME currently indicates a 100% chance that the Fed will reduce interest rates in the meeting early morning on 18/9:
- 88.4% leaning towards a 0.25% reduction
- 11.6% leaning towards a 0.5% reduction
Due to a mistaken order closure, I now hesitate to follow, preparing for the whale to sell; it has already flown quite well, any fish that is profitable should take some profits $BTC