In this round of the bull market, there is a question that is asked repeatedly in the community almost every day: "Will the altcoin season come again?" Some even begin to doubt, "Is there really no altcoin season in this round of the bull market?"
In fact, the altcoin season is essentially one of the rare "universal profit windows" in the cryptocurrency market—whenever altcoins collectively strengthen, it often indicates that market sentiment has peaked, allowing even beginners to benefit. This atmosphere where "everyone can make money" is the most iconic heat of a bull market. However, this round of the bull market is very special: it is the first time in cryptocurrency history that it has been sustained against a backdrop of global interest rate hikes and tightening liquidity, relying solely on the fundamentals of the industry. Without the previous loose environment of extensive monetary easing, the core fuel for the explosive growth of altcoins is also diminished, which is a key reason why altcoins remain weak at present.
Moreover, most altcoins cannot even find 'actual landing applications', and traditional capital is afraid to touch them; coupled with the lack of a spot ETF to support them and many compliance audit loopholes, institutional investors are even more wary. More realistically, market resources are now desperately squeezing towards leading projects, and coins like XRP and SUI, which have ecosystems and compliance endorsements, clearly have an advantage.
However, I still insist on my previous view: the altcoin season will definitely come. But it can be thought from another perspective, what would the crypto world look like if it really did not show up?
1. The collapse of the profit effect causes the market to 'cool down' completely
The most direct consequence is the market's 'attractiveness collapse'. Even if Bitcoin reaches new highs, retail investors who bought at high prices dare not heavily invest—after all, Bitcoin's doubling space is limited, while most newcomers rushing into the crypto world are not looking for a steady 50% return, but rather a 50-fold chance of getting rich.
Without this 'wealth creation story', the market cannot heat up, let alone the 'word-of-mouth' effect; without following the trend, new investors will not enter the market, and FOMO (fear of missing out) emotions cannot be discussed. In the end, it can only rely on spending money on advertising to create a 'money-making illusion', which is a vicious cycle.
2. The failure of cyclical patterns leads to a loss of 'directional anchor' for capital
This aspect is more hidden but has greater destructive power. In the traditional economy, there is the 'Merrill Lynch Clock', which guides asset allocation based on cycles; the cryptocurrency market is the same, with 'bull-bear alternation and altcoins catching up' being a long-formed rule and an 'anchor' for capital expectations.
Once this pattern is broken, the boundaries between 'bull markets' and 'bear markets' will become blurred, and capital will become extremely conservative—smart money will not dare to work together, and the market will lack a clear direction, even the 'big players' will not be able to control the rhythm, leading to a sharp rise in the operational costs of the entire market.
3. Outflow of market players leads to a shrinking basic plate
Long-term lack of profit effect not only fails to attract new funds, but also causes old players in the market to gradually leave, making the market's basic plate shrink smaller and smaller. At this stage of the cryptocurrency market, altcoins are actually the 'traffic entrance'—many people are first attracted by the high returns of altcoins, and then gradually understand Bitcoin and Ethereum.
When the market matures to the point where everyone understands the rules, altcoins may slowly exit the stage. But it is still early; if there are no altcoins, as Bitcoin's volatility decreases and circulation further concentrates, the market will quickly turn to derivatives dominance—leveraging and options trading will become mainstream, ultimately becoming an 'institutional cycle' similar to that of the US stock market, narrowing the survival space for retail investors.
What's more troublesome is that this will make it harder for truly promising projects to raise funds—once retail investors leave, the demand for tokens will plummet, and the market value of stablecoins will also drop, making fundraising a problem for project parties.
Finally, I want to say
Ultimately, from the perspective of current market interests, the emergence of altcoin seasons is a 'necessity'—without it, the market cannot heat up or survive; but in the long run, the 'tide receding' of altcoins may be a necessary path for the market to move towards health.
The future of the cryptocurrency market will definitely belong to those projects that can solve real problems and have real value, not bubbles created by speculation. Only by grasping 'value' at the core can one stand firm amidst the ups and downs of bulls and bears. I also hope everyone can jump out of short-term speculation and earn more stable and long-term money within their understanding.
