With less than ten days to go before the Federal Reserve's September interest rate meeting, the global financial markets have entered a critical phase of 'expectation games.' From U.S. stocks to gold, from traditional assets to cryptocurrencies, market sentiment is being driven by the core logic of 'interest rate cuts' — currently, the market bets that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is as high as 89%, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 11%, and the chance of no cut is zero. Against this backdrop, the volatility risk of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) has intensified, compounded by the dynamics of U.S. cryptocurrency regulatory policies and the movements of whale funds, placing the entire market at a complex intersection of multiple factors.
One, macro market: interest rate cut expectations dominate, assets broadly rise to new highs.
On the first trading day of September, global risk assets and safe-haven assets experienced a 'celebration' together:
U.S. stocks reached new highs again: the Nasdaq index rose by 0.5% during intraday trading, setting a new historical record; the S&P 500 index also rose by 0.12%, with the market's optimistic expectations for easing policies continuing to drive up technology sector valuations.
Gold breaks historical peak: spot gold rose by 1.3%, with prices soaring to $3635 per ounce, setting a new historical high. The driving logic comes from the fiscal pressure brought about by the issuance of $1.2 trillion in new debt in the U.S. and is closely related to Trump's increasing influence on Federal Reserve decisions—market fears that subsequent monetary easing may weaken the credibility of the U.S. dollar, leading to increased demand for gold as a 'safe-haven currency.'
Crypto assets rise: BTC increased by 1.2% on the day, ETH rose by 1.3%, forming a 'resonance increase' pattern with gold and U.S. stocks. Behind this is the crypto market's sensitive response to 'liquidity easing': Placeholder VC partner Chris Burniske bluntly stated, 'Only when the U.S. dollar printing machine stops operating will BTC truly peak.' The expectation of interest rate cuts under the current economic weakness essentially provides liquidity support for risk assets.
The market's expectations for interest rate cuts are clear and firm: the U.S. job market has shown 'recession signals'—the long-term unemployed have increased by nearly 10 percentage points within 20 months. Excluding the pandemic period in 2020 and the financial crisis of 2008, the current unemployment rate is higher than in all previous economic recession cycles. The weak non-farm data released last Friday further confirmed the 'stagnation of job growth.' Coupled with U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra revealing that 'the number of jobs may be revised down by 800,000 in 2024,' the necessity for the Federal Reserve to stimulate the economy through interest rate cuts has significantly increased.
Two, Federal Reserve personnel and policy: dovish tendencies emerging, easing cycle may accelerate.
In addition to short-term interest rate cut expectations, the Federal Reserve's 'personnel changes' and 'long-term policy path' deserve more attention, as they will directly affect the monetary environment in the next 1-3 years:
The Federal Reserve's leadership candidates remain undecided, with dovish candidates surfacing: Trump has clearly stated that 'the selection of the Federal Reserve leadership has been preliminarily determined.' Current potential candidates include White House National Economic Council Director Hassett, Walsh, and Waller. The market generally believes that if a candidate with a clear dovish inclination takes office, it could accelerate the easing process—Mizuho Bank predicts that the new leadership may push rates further down to near 2%, while the previous target of the Federal Reserve was to reduce rates to a 'neutral level' of 3% by March 2026.
Discrepancies among institutions regarding the magnitude of interest rate cuts are widening: the current mainstream market expectation is for a 25 basis point cut, but some institutions have provided more aggressive judgments: Standard Chartered has raised its September interest rate cut expectation from 25 basis points to 50 basis points; Mizuho Bank pointed out that if the August CPI data (to be released this Thursday) is weaker than expected (current expected CPI is 2.9%, core CPI is 3.1%), 'the probability of a 50 basis point cut will significantly increase,' and it expects the Federal Reserve to start a 'sustained easing cycle.'
For the crypto market, a long-term easing cycle means that 'low-cost funds' may flow back into assets like BTC and ETH—especially against the backdrop of pressured U.S. dollar credit and enhanced 'safe-haven properties' of gold and BTC, the demand for 'decentralized value reserves' may further increase.
Three, crypto regulation: SEC and CFTC breaking the ice for cooperation, the bill draft releases innovation space.
The long-standing 'ambiguity of rights and responsibilities' issue in U.S. crypto regulation has made significant progress recently, providing policy certainty for the market:
Two institutions jointly act to end the regulatory dispute: the SEC and CFTC plan to hold a public roundtable meeting on September 29 to discuss 'regulatory coordination priorities'; at the same time, the U.S. Senate's proposed (market structure bill draft) explicitly proposes establishing a 'joint committee of the SEC and CFTC,' with the core goal of resolving the issue of regulatory authority over cryptocurrencies.
The bill draft releases multiple benefits: this draft specifically responds to core demands of the crypto industry, including providing compliance protection for DeFi developers, clarifying the regulatory classification of airdrops, and exempting decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePINs) from securities law; in addition, it also calls for the two institutions to establish a 'Digital Assets Advisory Committee' to leave enough room for industry innovation through unified regulatory standards, with the ultimate goal of 'maintaining the U.S.'s leadership position in global capital markets.'
SEC strengthens cross-border law enforcement: the SEC recently established a 'Cross-Border Special Task Force' aimed at combating transnational crypto fraud by integrating investigative resources and enhancing tool usage, further improving the investor protection system.
Regulation is shifting from 'dispersed game' to 'coordinated standardization,' which is a long-term benefit for the crypto industry—especially for areas that were previously in the 'regulatory gray zone' such as DeFi and DePINs, which will gain a clearer compliance framework, aiding institutional fund entry.
Four, capital trends in the crypto market: ETF differentiation, whale accumulation, ETH ecosystem showing resilience.
In addition to macro and policy factors, on-chain and capital data also reveal 'structural changes' in the crypto market:
Spot ETF fund differentiation: last week, U.S. BTC spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $250 million, showing that market confidence in BTC remains strong; however, the ETH spot ETF saw an outflow of $787.6 million, possibly influenced by short-term fluctuations from the ETH PoS exit queue (currently, 698,000 ETH in the exit queue, with a waiting period of about 12 days) and profit-taking in the ecosystem.
Whales and institutions are frequently increasing their holdings:
El Salvador increased its holdings by 21 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 6312.18 BTC;
Metaplanet increased its holdings by 136 BTC, surpassing a total of 20,000 BTC (20136 BTC);
At the institutional level, Bitmine Immersion Tech (BMNR) has seen a 124.1% surge in ETH holdings over the past 30 days, currently holding 1.87 million ETH (worth approximately $8 billion); SharpLink Gaming (SBET) has seen a 60.4% increase in ETH holdings during the same period, holding 837,000 ETH (worth approximately $3.59 billion);
Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino confirmed that Tether will continue to allocate part of its profits to BTC, gold, and other safe assets, currently directly holding 77,447 BTC, further reinforcing the market perception that 'stablecoin giants back BTC.'
Five, key future focus: CPI data and interest rate meeting, seeking opportunities amidst volatility.
The core contradiction in the current crypto market lies in the matching of 'interest rate cut expectation fulfillment rhythm' and 'fund entry intensity.' In the coming week, two major events require close attention:
On Thursday, September CPI data: if CPI is below expectations, it will directly strengthen expectations for a '50 basis point cut,' possibly pushing BTC and ETH to short-term highs; if above expectations, it may trigger market concerns over 'tightening of easing measures,' raising the risk of a pullback.
September Federal Reserve interest rate meeting: regardless of whether the rate cut is 25 basis points or 50 basis points, the statement from the meeting regarding the 'future easing path' and assessments of inflation and employment will directly determine the mid-term trend of the crypto market—if a 'sustained easing' signal is released, it may open a new round of increases; if the attitude is hawkish, caution is needed against volatility caused by profit-taking.
Overall, the current crypto market is under the triple support of 'macro easing expectations + increased regulatory certainty + institutional fund entry,' but short-term volatility risks cannot be ignored—especially the possibility of BTC experiencing a 'pullback due to expectation fulfillment' before the interest rate cut is implemented, requiring investors to respond rationally to volatility and focus on long-term trends rather than short-term fluctuations.
