1. Uncle Feng's Core Logic Analysis of Bearish View

In an analysis report released by Uncle Feng in the early morning, he explained the short-term bearish logic from three dimensions:

Intensified whale selling: On-chain data shows that a certain whale address sold 34,110 ETH (approximately 150 million USD) in a single day on September 4, while simultaneously staking 269,485 ETH on the Beacon Chain, indicating that institutions are adjusting positions through high selling and low buying. The net inflow to exchanges reached 107.6 million USD on September 2, hitting a new multi-month high, reflecting the concentrated release of short-term selling pressure.

• Increase in short positions in the derivatives market: The perpetual contract funding rate fell from 0.03% to -0.01%, and the open interest (OI) increased against the trend during price declines, indicating that shorts are actively adding positions. Deribit data shows that the open interest proportion of call options above 4,400 USD has decreased to 32%, indicating a shift in market sentiment to caution.

3. Repair of macro expectations gap

• Interest rate cut expectation game: Although the US CPI data on September 8 exceeded expectations (year-on-year 3.3%), the CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points on September 17 has fallen from 92% in early August to 78%. If non-farm data is strong subsequently, it may further weaken easing expectations, triggering a pullback in risk assets.

• Dissipation of geopolitical risk premium: The easing of the Middle East situation has led to a withdrawal of safe-haven funds from assets like gold and ETH, with gold ETF holdings decreasing by 12 tons and the frequency of large ETH transfers on-chain decreasing by 27%. The recovery of risk appetite has shifted funds towards traditional markets.

Short-selling strategy: Lightly position short orders in the 4,350−4,380 range, near 4,300−4,230.

However, the cryptocurrency market is ever-changing, so it is essential to manage risk properly during operations and set reasonable stop-losses. #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥