In the arena where cryptocurrency intersects with traditional capital markets, MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) has recently become the market focus again. As the largest publicly traded company holding Bitcoin globally, the company not only missed the potential collaboration opportunity with Robinhood but also failed to be selected in the recent adjustment of the S&P 500 index components. Under the double impact of these messages, its stock price fell by nearly 3% during the first trading day after the announcement, and by the end of the day, the decline narrowed to 2.8%, closing at $642.5, still having a 9.7% upside compared to the previous target price of $705 given by Benchmark.
Looking back at the two core events that the market is focused on, first is the failed acquisition rumors of Robinhood. According to sources, both parties previously engaged in preliminary discussions for potential equity cooperation for a month, with Robinhood hoping to leverage MSTR's experience in Bitcoin asset allocation to strengthen its own cryptocurrency business segment, while MSTR intended to gain access to Robinhood's vast retail user traffic through equity stakes. However, as Robinhood recently announced quarterly financial results showing a 12% quarter-on-quarter increase in user activity and a rebound in cryptocurrency trading revenue to 18%, the company ultimately chose to independently advance its business, with its stock price surging 7% after the acquisition rumors were clarified, resulting in a single-day market value increase of approximately $2.1 billion, in stark contrast to MSTR's stock price trend.
What attracts more attention from the capital market is MSTR's progress towards being included in the S&P 500 index. S&P Dow Jones Indices noted in its latest component stock review report that although MSTR has achieved a 23% compound annual growth rate in revenue in recent years and its asset scale has significantly expanded due to Bitcoin holdings, the proportion of non-recurring revenue related to cryptocurrencies in the company's revenue structure is excessively high (the 2024 financial report shows this part of the revenue accounts for 41%), which does not meet the core requirements of the S&P 500 index for component stocks regarding 'business stability' and 'proportion of traditional operating performance.' In response, MSTR's CFO Phong Le stated in an investor conference call that the company is optimizing its revenue structure by expanding its enterprise software subscription business, expecting this business's revenue proportion to increase to 35% by 2025, and plans to reapply for inclusion in the S&P 500 index in 2026.
It is worth noting that despite facing market pressure in the short term, MSTR's founder and CEO Michael Saylor's long-term confidence in cryptocurrency has not diminished at all. At the recently held 'Future of Digital Assets Forum,' Saylor proposed the long-term target price for Bitcoin for the first time — expecting it to reach 21 million USD per coin by 2045. The core logic he provided includes: the continuous expansion of global sovereign debt (which has now exceeded 130 trillion USD) driving expectations of fiat currency depreciation, the scarcity of Bitcoin (with a total supply of 21 million coins) and its decentralized attributes making it a substitute for 'digital gold,' and the development of tokenized financial systems (with global tokenized asset scale expected to reach 10 trillion USD by 2030) significantly increasing the circulation demand for Bitcoin. Saylor further revealed that MSTR currently holds approximately 194,000 Bitcoins through its subsidiaries, valued at about 71 billion USD at current market prices, accounting for 83% of the company's total assets, and the company has no plans to reduce its holdings but rather plans to continue increasing its stake when Bitcoin prices drop below 50,000 USD.
Regarding Saylor's aggressive prediction, market analysts show obvious divergence. Morgan Stanley's digital asset research team released a report stating that the target price of 21 million USD must be based on multiple extreme assumptions such as 'global central banks massively allocating Bitcoin' and 'Bitcoin becoming the main settlement tool for cross-border trade,' with the current probability being less than 5%. Furthermore, the overly concentrated Bitcoin holdings have caused MSTR's stock price volatility (annualized 38%) to far exceed that of the S&P 500 index (annualized 12%), which ordinary investors need to be cautious about. In contrast, Benchmark analyst Ryan Nash maintained a 'buy' rating on MSTR, emphasizing in his report that MSTR's Bitcoin holdings not only bring asset appreciation potential but also give it a first-mover advantage in cryptocurrency infrastructure development — the company has already launched Bitcoin custody services in cooperation with 12 major global banks, and related business revenue is expected to exceed 500 million USD by 2025. In addition, MSTR's current debt-to-asset ratio is only 18%, with cash and cash equivalents totaling 1.2 billion USD, providing a strong balance sheet as a safety net for its long-term strategy.
From the perspective of market capital flows, although MSTR's stock price is under short-term pressure, institutional holdings remain stable. The latest 13F filings disclosed by the U.S. SEC show that as of the end of the fourth quarter of 2024, a total of 187 institutions held MSTR shares, with a total holding of 34.5 million shares, accounting for 42% of the float, among which leading asset management institutions such as BlackRock and Vanguard maintained their holdings unchanged. Some quantitative funds have hedged risks through the options market, and recently the trading volume of MSTR's put options increased by 35% quarter-on-quarter, with the main exercise prices concentrated in the 600-620 USD range, reflecting the market's cautious expectations for short-term stock prices.
Looking ahead, MSTR's development will be closely tied to the performance of the Bitcoin market and the progress of its traditional business transformation. If Bitcoin can break through its previous historical high (69,000 USD) in 2025, MSTR's asset appreciation gains are expected to further boost its stock price; while if the traditional software business can achieve growth as scheduled, it will lay the foundation for its push towards the S&P 500 index. For investors, how to balance the high volatility of cryptocurrencies with the company's long-term strategic value will become the key to future allocation decisions.
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