Compiled by: GaryMa Wu discusses blockchain

Summary
Wu discusses this week's macro indicators and analysis: Last week's US non-farm employment data fell below expectations, indicating fatigue in the labor market; Trump called the data 'fake'; This week, focus on the US labor non-farm employment annual benchmark revision, Sino-US August CPI, and the European Central Bank interest rate decision.

Review of last week

  • The latest Beige Book released by the Federal Reserve System shows that economic activity in most districts has not changed significantly since the last report, with only four districts experiencing moderate growth. Consumer spending has remained flat or declined, primarily due to wage growth not keeping pace with rising prices. Overall changes in the labor market have been modest, with some companies reducing hiring due to weak demand, and layoffs increasing in certain areas. The return-to-office policy and automation trends have accelerated natural attrition. In terms of prices, ten districts reported moderate or slight price increases, but most areas have seen input costs rise due to tariffs. In the context of rising customer price sensitivity, some businesses still face pressure to raise prices. Most districts expect prices to continue to rise in the future, with some regions anticipating an expansion in the magnitude of increases.

  • U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 30 is 237,000, expected 230,000, previous value revised from 229,000 to 259,000. U.S. July Trade Balance -$78.3 billion, expected -$75.7 billion, previous value revised from -$60.2 billion to -$59.1 billion.

  • U.S. August ADP Employment Increased by 54,000, significantly lower than the market expectation of 68,000, and also a noticeable slowdown compared to the revised increase of 104,000 in July.

  • U.S. August Non-Farm Employment Increased by only 22,000, marking one of the weakest monthly increases since the end of 2021, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years. The market previously expected an increase of 76,500. CNN pointed out that the U.S. labor market has shown signs of fatigue, and President Trump unusually fired the BLS director last month, claiming the data was "fabricated." The market is becoming increasingly cautious about economic growth prospects.



Key Events & Indicators This Week
September 09

  • U.S. 2025 Non-Farm Employment Benchmark Change Preliminary Value (10,000) (22:00)


September 10

  • Apple Inc. Fall New Product Launch (01:00)

  • China August CPI Year-on-Year (09:30)

  • U.S. August PPI Year-on-Year (20:30)

  • China August M2 Money Supply Year-on-Year (TBD)


September 11

  • European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision Announcement (20:15)

  • U.S. August Seasonally Unadjusted CPI Year-on-Year (20:30)

  • U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending September 6 (10,000) (20:30)

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